The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the President of France, Mr. Francois Hollande at the Joint Press statement, in Paris on April 10, 2015

 

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi with the President of France, Mr. Francois Hollande, in Paris on April 10, 2015

 

Patrol flight of 2 Rafales

Photo Credit: PIB, Dassault Aviation

It was during the joint statement in Paris on April 10, 2015 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi ended the uncertainty about the long pending deal for 126 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA). Speculation in the media preceding the meeting with the President of France Francois Hollande had pegged the number of Rafale jets to be procured to 63, precisely half of the projected figure of 126. The digits have now been reversed as the figure stated by the Indian Prime Minister in his joint statement in Paris was 36, equivalent to just two squadrons! The Prime Minister also made it clear that these 36 aircraft would be procured directly from the company in fly-away condition.

As per the original projections, the IAF needed 126 aircraft equivalent to six squadrons. Of these, 18 aircraft was to be procured directly from Dassault in fly-away condition and the remaining 108 aircraft was to be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) under Transfer of Technology arrangement. However, despite prolonged negotiations with Dassault, the deal is yet to be finalised. Having waited for nearly eight years since the tender was floated, the IAF was beginning to get impatient as the strength of combat squadrons was dwindling rapidly and has reached an alarming all-time low of 25 against the currently authorised strength of 39.5 squadrons and enhanced level of 42 squadrons by 2022. . The situation is getting more worrisome with the increasing military belligerence of China. There is no doubt that the need of the IAF to induct the six squadrons of Rafale combat aircraft is indeed extremely urgent.

A critical component of the proposed deal was production of 108 Rafales in India, a mandate that has become even more important under the recently propagated “Make in India” theme of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The announcement by the Indian Prime Minister on the procurement of 36 Rafale fighter jets has come as a great relief to the IAF as it will definitely provide a fresh impetus for finalisation of the 126 MMRCA tender for which contract negotiations have been going on for three years. It is noteworthy that in his statement, the Prime Minister did not relate the acquisition of 36 aircraft to the MMRCA contract that is yet to be finalised. Prior to commencement of the visit to France, the Prime Minister had stated that dialogue on the MMRCA contract was going on and hoped that it would be finalised soon. It thus appears that the 36 aircraft that the Prime Minister has asked France to supply, is beyond the 126 aircraft in the MMRCA tender and is a separate Government-to-Government deal between the two nations to meet with the urgent requirement of the IAF. Once the tender is finalised, the 18 aircraft that was to be procured in fly-away condition in the MMRCA tender would probably be done away with and HAL will still have to produce another 108 aircraft in India. The total number acquired would at least be 144 (36 plus 108), higher than the original projection for 126. The IAF should be elated at this development as it will be a shot in the arm for the shrinking fleet of combat jets. For the IAF it is time to open the Champagne bottle!

Induction of the 36 Rafale jets ought to regarded only as baby steps. While this deal is bound to elevate the sagging spirits in the IAF, the requirement is for numbers that are far greater. Apart from the fact that induction of just two squadrons would be totally inadequate from the point of view of upgrading operational capability, the IAF would still have make heavy investments in creating infrastructure for maintenance and training a fleet strength of two squadrons would not justify. Besides, the finalisation of the 126 MMRCA contract will help realise Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s theme and campaign of Make in India. The deal for 126 Rafale MMRCA will indeed be a golden opportunity for Make in India in the regime of high-end technology, something that the nation cannot afford to lose. . Any downward revision in the total number of Rafale aircraft to be acquired from the originally peojected figure of 126 is therefore not an option.