Boeing raises forecast for new airplane demand in China

20 year outlook projects 7,200+ new airplanes, valued at $1.1 trillion

6.3 percent increase over 2016 forecast

September 6, 2017

Boeing, China's leading provider of commercial airplanes, projects a demand for 7,240 new airplanes in the country over the next 20 years valued at nearly $1.1 trillion dollars.

Boeing's annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO) was released today in Beijing, with total airplane demand rising 6.3 percent over last year's forecast.

"China's continuous economic growth, significant investment in infrastructure, growing middle-class and evolving airline business models support this long-term outlook," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "China's fleet size is expected to grow at a pace well above the world average, and almost 20 percent of global new airplane demand will be from airlines based in China."

Single-aisle airplanes continue to be the foundation of domestic and regional fleets in China. Boeing sees the need for 5,420 new single-aisle airplanes through 2036, accounting for 75 percent of the total new deliveries. Full-service airlines and low-cost carriers have been adding new single-aisle airplanes and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand in China and throughout Asia.

Tinseth said the backlog from Chinese customers demonstrates that the new 737 MAX 8 remains at the heart of the single-aisle market.

Boeing forecasts the widebody fleet over the next 20 years will require 1,670 new airplanes. Airlines continue to shift to small and medium widebody airplanes for long-haul expansion and flexibility. Primary demand for very large widebodies going forward will be in the freighter market.

"China's outbound travel market continues its rapid growth toward 200 million passengers annually," said Tinseth. "With new technologies, superior capabilities and advanced efficiency, the 787 and 777X families will play a key role in supporting the growth of China's long-haul market."

New Airplane China Deliveries Through 2036

Airplane type Seats Total new deliveries Dollar value
Regional jets 90 and below 150 $10B
Single-aisle 90-230 5,420 $570B
Small wide-body 200-300 940 $260B
Medium/large wide-body 300 and above 550 $190B
Freighter widebody   180 $60B
Total   7,240
(18% of world total)
$1.09T
(18% of world total)