ATR presents its new Market Forecast 2016-2035, drawn up using new methodology to better reflect the regional turboprop market
ATR, the world’s leading regional aircraft manufacturer, unveiled its brand new 20 year Market Forecast at the 50th Farnborough International Airshow. Populations, living standards and therefore connectivity needs are growing and regional dynamics are changing in both mature and emerging markets. Turboprops have a key role to play in that expansion, promoting community development with links between secondary and tertiary airports as well as regional access into/out of the main hubs. Over the coming 20 years, ATR anticipates an average growth rate in annual regional traffic of around 3.9%, which means 2,800 turboprop aircraft will be needed worldwide.
Among those 2,800 aircraft, ATR predicts that 1,000 turboprops (35%) will be replacing older aircraft, keeping the flying fleets up to and beyond required safety and environmental standards. The other 65% will come from fleet growth. Half of the fleet growth will come from route creation as growing numbers of cities and regions connect directly - 3,000 new routes are forecast. The other half will come from the growth in existing regional markets and increasing rates of conversion to turboprop technology.
Regional connectivity is becoming more and more of a priority all over the world. Key markets such as China and India but also Iran, Japan and the USA, all need to develop new routes or re-open regional routes. Thanks to its new forecasting methodology, ATR has been able to evaluate route creation potential in each world region. 3.2% per year of this forecast growth can be attributed to the 3,000 or more new routes that are expected to open: 1,400 routes in Asia-Pacific including China, 800 across the Americas and 800 between Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Regardless of variations in the market, ATR’s key characteristics are constant: the aircraft are simple, robust and reliable and continuous improvement means performance increases constantly in existing aircraft without the need for new acquisitions. From an environmental point of view, the increased use of turboprops on regional routes helps reduce regional aviation CO2 emissions; from a financial point of view, the low operating costs of ATR turboprops represent a hedge against market volatility. It is the accumulation of these strengths that ensures success for ATR, even in these times of economic uncertainty.