Embraer has released its 2015-34 Market Outlook which details forecasted deliveries of new aircraft over the next twenty years. The report focuses on the 70 to 130-seat capacity category which is valued at $300 billion during that period. Embraer projects deliveries of 6,350 jets — 2,250 units in the 70- to 90- seat segment and 4,100 units in the 90- to 130-seat segment.

The 70- to 130-seat jet world fleet-in-service will increase from 2,590 aircraft in 2014 to 6,490 by 2034, the fastest growing among all aircraft seat segments. Replacement of ageing aircraft will represent 39 per cent of new deliveries and 61 per cent will represent market growth.

The capacity discipline strategy followed by North American carriers has proven to be very effective in generating higher profits. As airlines become more attractive to investors, Embraer also sees a shift in the main business goals from unit cost and market share to unit profit and return on investment.

“Right-sized aircraft can regularly generate higher revenue and profit per seat since they have fewer available seats allocated for low-fare passengers. High efficiency of assets is essential to sound financial performance. Those attributes — combined with hub-and-spoke efficiency, narrow-body aircraft complement and new market development — will generate significant demand for new aircraft in the segment”, explained Paulo Cesar Silva, President & CEO, Embraer Commercial Aviation.

Worldwide demand for air transport, measured by revenue passenger kilometres, will increase 2.6 fold at an average of 4.9 per cent annually through 2034. China and the Middle East will be the fastest-growing markets with an average annual RPK growth rate of around 7.0 per cent, followed by the emerging regions of Latin America with 5.9 per cent, Africa with 5.4 per cent, Asia-Pacific and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with around 5.0 per cent and the mature markets of Europe and North America with 3.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.

Embraer leadership continues

Paulo Cesar Silva said that Embraer’s leadership in the 70-130 segment continues with the company accounting for 60 per cent of the marketshare, followed by Bombardier 32 per cent and the rest by 8 per cent.

Mainline airline to deploy Embraer jet

While conceding that it was difficult to break the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus, he said that for Embraer it was significant that US-based Delta Air Lines was going to deploy Embraer jet on mainline routes. “This development is very positive.” With firm orders of 454 aircraft, Embraer he added had a ‘solid future.’