“National security is being compromised with a fast-eroding strength of combat aircraft in the Indian Air Force (IAF) vis-à-vis the neighbouring countries, leading to a very grim situation”, a parliamentary panel said in December 2014. “With regard to the strength of combat squadrons, it is learnt that we are down to 25 squadrons today even though the authorisation is for 42 combat squadrons. Thus, our capability has already come down,” the Standing Committee on Defence said in a report tabled in Parliament. Is the situation as bad as it was painted? Is the IAF doing something about this critical state of affairs? Is the depleting strength of combat aircraft affecting the combat potential of the IAF, which is the real measure of the IAF’s ability to manage conflicts?

Analysis

The authorisation of a strength of 42 combat squadrons for the IAF was worked out post the 1962 Sino-Indian conflict. This figure had been trimmed down to 39.5 squadrons by the Government of India. The IAF has been urging the government during the annual IAF Commanders Conferences of the need to build up the strength of the combat fleet, but to no avail. Perhaps, the government believes that conventional wars are not likely to take place in this integrated world and hence is not pursuing the aircraft purchases with the seriousness it deserves.

The combat potential of an air force should be judged not only by the number of fighter aircraft in the fleet; but also by other assets such as surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs), command, control, communication, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft, aerial refuellers, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), air defence weapons consisting of fighter aircraft, SAMs, air defence artillery, besides other vital attributes such as well trained and professionally capable human resource. Finally, it would also be appropriate to address the effect of the goverment’s ‘Make in India’ thrust which has stalled a number of purchases of the IAF. Let us look at the criticality of the fighter aircraft of the IAF first.

The Combat Fleet

The same parliamentary panel had noted that the IAF had only 25 active fighter squadrons with 14 of them equipped with MiG-21 and MiG-27 combat planes which would be phased out by 2024. It added that the strength would be reduced to just 11 squadrons by 2024. This “widening gap” has occurred primarily due to the rate of retirement of the fighter jet aircraft, it said.

Though the IAF has contracted for 272 Sukhoi Su-30MKI planes to equip 13 squadrons, delivery of which would be completed by 2020, the IAF would effectively be able to add 13 squadrons in its fleet only by that year, the committee observed. Besides the Su-30 aircraft, the IAF has in its inventory, three squadrons each of the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 aircraft, both being upgraded to enhance multi-role capability. It also has four squadrons of Jaguar aircraft. By 2021, the IAF expects to have seven squadrons of the Tejas fleet consisting of the Mk I and IA. Along with the two squadrons of the Rafale to be inducted after the negotiations are completed, the IAF would have regained its fleet strength of 39.5 combat squadrons by 2025.

When one considers the force capability, then the analysis reveals a more optimistic picture. A Su-30MKI carries nine tonnes of weapon load as compared to four tonnes each by the Jaguar/Mirage 2000/MiG-29 aircraft and two tonnes by the Tejas aircraft and that too over longer ranges. Hence a fleet of 272 Su-30MKI aircraft will give the IAF a far more capable force! This capability driven force should be able to cope with limited operations till 2025 by which time the combat aircraft inventory is expected to reach 39.5 squadrons.

Surface-to-Surface Missiles

The combat capability of the IAF is being augmented by the indigenous Prithvi and the Agni SSMs. The Prithvi is a tactical SSM with a range of 350-500 km and the Agni series which carries a payload of 500-1,000 kg, with ranges purported to be over 5,500 km. These SSMs, along with the submarine launched SSMs, will serve as a deterrent to any adventurous adversary!

C4ISR Systems

Having looked at the sharp edge of the combat potential, a brief recap of the C4ISR capabilities will be in order. The IAF had started an indigenous Aerospace Command and Control System, called the Integrated Aerospace Command and Control System (IACCS), which is gradually taking shape. Its initial purpose is to cover the aerospace defence of India, but given the extended radar coverage of AWACS aircraft, it can also provide protection to the strike aircraft of the IAF up to its radar coverage. Since it will obtain inputs from civilian air traffic control and the Indian Army air defence radars as well as naval radars, it will provide the command at the strategic level, a comprehensive and integrated picture of the aerospace situation in real time. The coverage of this system is expected to extend to the entire Indian subcontinent in a few years from now. While details are classified, the IAF is reported to be taking innovative steps in net-centric and cyber warfare.

Force Multipliers

AWACS, aerial refuelling aircraft and UAS are described as Force multipliers as they enhance the capabilities of all aerial vehicles of the three services. The IAF has a fleet of AWACS as well as aerial tanker aircraft, but their limited numbers may be able to cater to only a single adversary. The IAF has made plans to enhance the numbers of all these systems in its inventory. In addition to the Israeli Phalcon radars mounted on an Il-76 platform, the IAF has also on its inventory, an indigenously developed radar mounted on an Embraer-145 platform with slightly less coverage. Even here, the IAF has made plans to induct more of these aircraft with enhanced capability. The situation as far as UASs are concerned is complex. UASs are intelligence and reconnaissance platforms and with limited strike capability which are ideal for counter insurgency (COIN) operations. Optimal utilisation of force multipliers demands centralised control and decentralised use, but that is still a long way off.

The indigenous Rustom medium-altitude long endurance (MALE) UAV is yet to be operationalised and inducted into the armed forces.

Air Defence Systems

The Pechora and OSA SAMs of Russian origin are nearing the end of their lives and the IAF is making efforts to procure the S-400 Triumpf SAM from Russia which would tackle threat from ballistic missiles as well as fighter and bomber aircraft. The IAF has also placed orders for the Akaash medium, range SAM from the Defence Research and Development Organisation/Bharat Dynamics Ltd which will ensure that the Pechora replacement is on track. The Israeli Spyder short-range SAM will be the OSA replacement. In a few years time, the successful culmination of efforts by a new joint development by Israel and DRDO which will enhance the IAF’s SAM capability even further. Air defence guns being handled by the Army are likely to see new inductions soon. Hence, even in the area of air defence, the IAF is taking all the necessary steps to cater to threat from adversaries.

Human Resource Development

The acid test of the capability of IAF’s human resource is when they interact with foreign air forces where IAF personnel right from World War II days till now have made the nation proud in giving an excellent account of themselves, be it in Exercise Cope Thunder involving six Jaguar aircraft, IL-76 mission to Alaska or Exercise Garuda in Gwalior with the USAF, the air warriors of the IAF have displayed the highest standards of professionalism, able to not only cope, but at times, have proved to the best of the best! Their sustained record of performance reflects the high standards of training in the IAF.

Make in India

The thrust by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at ‘Make in India’ is truly pathbreaking, but needs focus on certain areas namely organisation, reliability and maintainability. The Indian Navy since independence has been more successful in its efforts at indigenisation than the IAF. The principal reason is the establishment of the Directorate of Warship Design and Production under the control of Naval Headquarters. This has ensured single-point accountability and responsibility with Naval Headquarters and the next is in programme management where naval officers are deputed to manage and drive the warship design and production. This pattern should be adopted by the IAF as well and will pay rich dividends. The aspect of reliability and maintainability is generally forgotten by the Defence Research and Development Organisation. Even if an aircraft, missile or radar is ready for induction albeit with performance shortfalls, its high reliability and maintainability will ensure that it will be available to the commander for deployment and use in the field. This needs the setting up of a Directorate of Aircraft Design and Production at Air Headquarters so that weapons systems development and their time-bound production are monitored effectively.

Conclusion

The Standing Committee on Defence has rightly brought to the notice of the government the urgent need to replenish the depleting fighter fleet of the IAF. While it can be seen that the IAF is doing its best, the situation will remain critical till 2020 or even up to a later date. The government needs to sanction the establishment of a Directorate of Aircraft Design and Production at Air Headquarters at the earliest and thus help Prime Minister Modi’s vision of ‘Make in India’ to become a reality.