Shaping up of Business Aviation with Covid-19 Pandemic Around

The pessimist complains about the wind!
The optimist expects it to change!
The realist adjusts the sails!
—William Arthur Wild

Covid-19 descended this year as an absolute curse on the entire world, totally destabilising life & economy of over 200 nations in an unprecedented & disruptive manner. But now after 4 to 5 months of the onset of this pandemic event, what type of positive & negative thinking has invaded the aviation community, how do things stand & how are these going to shape up in the future, specifically with respect to the Business & General Aviation (BA/GA) in India?

Complaining about the Wind

The mounting corona-affected patients’ statistics across different States & Union Territories, being constantly reflected in perhaps right earnestness by the media, have set in a pessimistic environment. Driven by the fear of the yet unknown & unresolved, by & large the air travellers presently prefer to stay in a protective shell, & would travel only if considered unavoidable & absolutely necessary.

The mounting corona-affected patients’ statistics across different States & Union Territories have set in a pessimistic environment. Driven by the fear of the yet unknown & unresolved, by & large the air travellers presently prefer to stay in a protective shell & would travel only if considered unavoidable & absolutely necessary.

• After imposing a lock down in March this year, the Ministry of Civil Aviation unlocked domestic Air travel in the last week of June. The air travel demand, however, still continues to be sluggish due to different States & Union Territories imposing different entry & exit restrictions, which are based on their frequently changing lockdown & quarantine rules, that too in an unpredictable manner & mostly without notice. As such, travel restrictions imposed for the time being are not durable & are subject to frequent changes.
• This uncertain & stretched arrangement, however, does not suit a Business traveller. Across international & national state boundaries, there have been a number of cases of stranded passengers, dampening even need-based air travel.
• As per Moody’s, ‘Commercial Aviation will be ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic for years to come. The global air passenger slump is likely to last till 2023.’ More pessimistic predictions state that full recovery may extend into as late as 2025. The worst stated in this respect so far, however, needs to be viewed with discretion.
• Even in normal times, BA/GA industry was working & staying afloat on wafer-thin margins. With no Government financial aid in sight so far, the balance sheets have nose-dived into accumulated & unmanageable debts. Faced with such severely dented resources, pay cuts & lay-offs have become a common order of the day, executed or under serious contemplation.
• Note: According to IATA, airlines world-wide were estimated to have received $123 billion of government aid as of mid-May, 2020 (Includes high-end carriers such as Air France, Lufthansa, Alitalia, SAS, Finnair, & more, some of which have strong Business Air components under their wings!). How India’s commercial air sector, including BA/GA, even in mid-July is getting by without a bail-out remains an unresolved national mystery!!!
• In the present fluid, ever-changing scenario, the corona-count in India is still steadily increasing. The aviation sector, including its weaker sibling, the BA/GA sector, continues to deal with the chaos as best as it can, as nothing can be confidently predicted for the time-being!

Expecting the Winds to Change!

Some of the kind-hearted aviation analysts & experts have shown optimism, typically through their statements & predictions, illustratively sampled as follows.

• Mind set of people will change over time & air travel will bounce back sooner than later!
• Air travel is the safest mode of travel, more so for travel by the personal & crowd--exclusive BA/GA mode, as compared to travelling in bulk by the ‘Economy Class’.
• It will gradually sink into the minds of air travellers that during the most depressing reign of Covid-19, flying private (read BA/GA modes) would eliminate more than 600 touch points at airports during the process of boarding, actual travel & de-boarding of aircraft. Flying private would, in comparison, involve only around 20 such touch points, thereby statistically reducing, to a very large extent, any chances of inadvertently getting infected with coronavirus.
• Under the given circumstances the BA/GA sector will strengthen its clientele base by promoting the advantages of flying privately to the regulars as well as to the ‘uninitiated’.
• Covid-19 event is no different from 9/11. Nations, with their synergised efforts, found adequate anti-dotes for overcoming the devastating effects of the “9/11 Event” & aviation not only bounced back but multiplied manifold thereafter! The “Covid-19 Event” causing an equally negative psychological impact, inhibiting air travel for the time-being, is no different. Given time & with requisite antidotes in place, it will surely bounce back & multiply in full force as before.
• On the side-lines & not to miss the icing on the cake for the optimist: As per an aviation news item, “The collapse of air travel means the world-wide shortage of pilots may be over for now. Business Aviation could take a pick from the surplus!”.

ADVANTAGE BA /GA : BUT NOT BEFORE PULLING STRINGS WITH THE GOVERNMENT & ADJUSTING OWN SAILS!

• In essence, Business Aviation & Scheduled Airlines perform the same basic function: transporting passengers over distances with speed. BA/GA is not a competitor of regular airlines.
• How safe passengers feel on board aircraft is clearly going to determine how quickly the industry recovers. The predominant consideration for passengers & crew is whether it is safe to fly. Two factors influence this:
  1. How Airlines board?
  2. How many people are on the plane?
  Business Aviation planes score hands-down on both these counts.
• Business Aircraft seating arrangement by design is more spacious & is thus expected to meet social distancing norms more effectively.
• All sections of the BA/GA industry need to join together in this time of crisis of survival to launch a unified & aggressive campaign in suitably educating the target audience (both the existing & the possible first-timers). This may be seen as a ‘A Herculean’ task, but at a time when the very survival is at stake, both the existing BAOA members as well as the non-BAOA members should take the lead in this campaign. Repeat, It has to be a unified & aggressive campaign by each member, else it will only end up as a utopian thought!
• The National Government, in particular it’s designated arm the Ministry of Civil Aviation for travel by air, needs to be adequately stirred (& not shaken!) for framing clear, common & durable policies jointly applicable amongst State Governments (including Union Territories) to ensure that quarantine rules at entry & exit points are not a hindrance but are made conducive to facilitating & promoting this unique form of relatively safer & quicker mode of travel.

Advice to all Members of the BA/GA Community: Don’t complain of winds, don’t keep waiting for winds to change; for survival: Just Keep Adjusting Your Sails!

JAI HIND

AVM S.S. Chauhan (Retd)
PVSM AVSM VSM
President, BAOA.