The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

Jolted by the Indian Air Force (IAF) deployment of the S-400 missile system in the very near future (first set being deployed in April 2022), Pakistan is adding 50 x JF-17 Block III fighters commencing March 2022. According to Pakistani media, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is procuring these fighter jets jointly built with China to replace old aircraft and upgrade capability against India's missile defence system, and that the new JF-17 jets will fly at the national day military parade on March 23, 2022.

JF-17 production began in the late 1980s in a $500 million China-Pakistan joint venture. More than 100 of the aircraft have been commissioned into the PAF since 2007, of which 26 were added in 2020 as the ‘second’ block. The 50 being added now are the ‘third’ block. Significantly, the PAF is not very comfortable with the JF-17 fighter compared to the US F-16. Not a single JF-17 crossed the Line of Control (LoC) or even launched a weapon during the Pakistani unsuccessful raid in the Rajouri-Mendhar sector on February 27, 2019; the day after the IAF targeted the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorist training camp in Balakot.

JF-17 production began in the late 1980s in a $500 million China-Pakistan joint venture. More than 100 of the aircraft have been commissioned into the PAF since 2007, of which 26 were added in 2020 as the ‘second’ block. The 50 being added now are the ‘third’ block.

According to China’s state media narrative, the country’s modern aircraft are the best in the world. But Pakistan’s experience with the Chinese-made JF-17 tells a different story. The PAF has bought over 100 JF-17 Block I and Block II, pressing them into active service. However, reports indicate that approximately 40 aircraft are not airworthy due to shortage of spare parts. The Russian-made RD-93 engine of the JF-17 has reportedly experienced frequent cracks in guide vanes, exhaust nozzles, and flame stabilizers. The Chinese are trying to replace the RD-93 with the Chinese made WS-13 engines but when these will be made available to Pakistan remains a big question, Pakistan has expended more than $3 billion on acquiring these 3.5 generation fighters. Whether this expenditure was truly worthwhile, is a question Pakistani taxpayers must ask.

Similar is PAFs experience with the Chinese-made Wing Loong II Unmanned Aerial Systems (UCAVs); which have been grounded due to crippling defects within days of induction. PAF’s misery has been compounded by the pathetic service and maintenance provided by the Chinese firm. The China National Aero-technology Import and Export Corporation has so far been indifferent to desperate calls for repair and maintenance of the grounded drones.

Pakistan has expended more than $3 billion on acquiring these 3.5 generation fighters. Whether this expenditure was truly worthwhile, is a question Pakistani taxpayers must ask.

Nikkei Asia has quoted Taimur Fahad Khan, a research associate with the Center for Strategic Perspectives at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, saying, "S-400 has been found to be largely ineffective (sic) against some of the advanced, multirole fighter jets with near stealth features. These jets possess capabilities that make them the best option to counter S-400. JF-17 block three fighters are ‘near stealth’ with advanced software and radar capabilities that can be used to deceive the tracking system of S-400 missiles, among other systems.” He also said that the new fighters can detect enemy jets at long distances and launch attacks preemptively.

The reality is that PAF will not be able to fly its airborne early warning systems (AWACS) and deep penetration radars as the S-400 missiles will shoot them down in the event of hostilities. Therefore, Pakistani JF -17 fighters will be fighting without the support of AWACS and dated Chinese radars. The only place they can evade detection ‘partially’ is in the high mountainous terrain which is only present in the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh, if the JF-17 fighters do resort to valley flying.

The reality is that PAF will not be able to fly its airborne early warning systems (AWACS) and deep penetration radars as the S-400 missiles will shoot them down in the event of hostilities

The S-400 is considered one of the most powerful air defence systems in the world. It is claimed to be effective against various weapons including rockets, missiles, cruise missilesand aircraft.In addition to shooting down enemy aircraft, the S-400 air defence system provides trans-border visibility up to a depth of nearly 300 km into enemy territory in the plains. According to ‘National Interest’, the S-400 air defence system may be able to pick up the F-35 stealth fighter at 32 km and an F-15E Strike Eagle 320 km away. The simple logic then is that if two of America’s most advanced fighter jets are visible to the S-400 radar, then the Pakistan’s JF-17s stands no chance against the S-400.

Apparently, when Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan visited China recently during the Winter Olympics in Beijing, he carried his begging bowl seeking another $3 billion loan from China. China saw the opportunity to rope in the deal of 50 x JF-17 fighter jets. This is good publicity for JF-17 exports to other countries. Pakistan can continue to fool its public that the JF-17 can beat the S-400, though they have been careful by simply saying it is the “best option”. Imran Khan and his Generals will pocket the substantial underhand sums through the deal – so what if Pakistan’s economy is in doldrums!

It would be wrong to assume that Pakistan is prepared to shut the door on the US simply because it is getting these jets and other important defence products from China. If Pakistan were presented with an opportunity to acquire US arms, it certainly wouldn't dismiss it.

An interesting observation is by Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director of the Asia programme at Wilson Center, who told Nikkei Asia, "India has the luxury of a diversified group of arms suppliers from Russia and Israel to the US. This is why Pakistan won't be prepared to rest easy anytime soon. It would be wrong to assume that Pakistan is prepared to shut the door on the US simply because it is getting these jets and other important defence products from China. If Pakistan were presented with an opportunity to acquire US arms, it certainly wouldn't dismiss it."

Finally, knowing that his JF-17s stand no chance against the S-400, Imran Khan would be murmuring to himself: Dil Ko Behlane Ke Liye Ghalib-i-Khyal Achha Hai.