The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

The Army installed Interim Government in Bangladesh, having little administrative experience, is conducting crackdowns, arrests and physical assaults on political opponents and judiciary (using Islamist mobs), while accusing the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government of autocracy. Sheikh Hasina did make Bangladesh the new Asian Economic Tiger but turning autocratic she jailed rivals and her rapid action battalion bloodied its hands with extrajudicial killings.

The army coup unseating Sheikh Hasina was immediately followed up by changes in the army hierarchy and total overhaul of the judiciary, which indicates that the army is in no hurry to announce elections. 84-year old Muhammad Yunus, designated Chief Advisor in the Interim Government, will remain a puppet with Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman holding the remote. Lt General Abdul Hafiz, a retired General of the Bangladesh Army, has now been appointed as Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser of the interim government Muhammad Yunus.

The Army-installed Interim Government in Bangladesh, lacking administrative experience, is conducting crackdowns on political opponents and the judiciary, while accusing Sheikh Hasina's Awami League of autocracy

General Waker-Uz-Zaman
Chief of Army Staff of Bangladesh Army

It has been opined that the coup in Bangladesh was US-inspired, which is very likely. Having sponsored, raised, armed and used terrorist organisations like Al Qaeda, ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, plus leaving $9 billion worth of weaponry for the Taliban, the US plan is to plunge South Asia into chaos using these proxy forces. Why else would the US State Department "accidentally" send $239 million to Taliban 2021 onwards, as revealed by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan?

Dhaka has cancelled all diplomatic passports, including that of Sheikh Hasina and her presence in India is viewed as an unfriendly act by Bangladesh even though she did not seek asylum here. Also, murder charges have been filed against her, implying immediate arrest if she returns to Bangladesh. India-Bangladesh signed an extradition treaty in 2006, amended in 2013, which says extradition may be refused if the offence for which it is requested is of political nature.

Amid mob rampage against Hindus, Muhammad Yunus visited a Hindu temple in Dhaka and assured safety of minorities. But this is more of a token message and persecution of Hindus will continue even if the pace slows down. There have been instances where Islamist mobs have gone berserk attacking minorities and the police has stayed away on some pretext. Pranay Verma, India's High Commissioner in Dhaka met Yunus to raise security concerns but Yunus has little executive powers.

The coup was followed by changes in the army hierarchy and a judiciary overhaul, with the military showing no urgency to hold elections; 84-year-old Muhammad Yunus remains a puppet, with Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman holding control

With some five million people affected by floods, Bangladesh has accused India of deliberately causing the floods. This is despite India constantly providing real-time flood data to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has also cancelled August 15 as the national holiday, which used to be celebrated as Liberation Day of Bangladesh.

The Indo-Bangladesh border is witnessing tense moments. On August 23, 2024, Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) stopped the Border Security Force (BSF) from building a cattle fence near the India-Bangladesh border in Coochbehar, north Bengal. According to a BSF officer, "While our personnel were supervising the construction of the cattle fence, BGB personnel came over and objected. It was not even a border fence. The fence was being built to ensure cattle from one country don't stray into another, which often causes disputes between village residents on either side."

This was the second time in a week that tensions spiked at the border after the regime change in Bangladesh. On August 17, BGB refused to return five Indian nationals who strayed into Bangladesh territorial waters while helping BSF rescue smuggled animals in River Ganga. Despite several flag meetings at various levels, they have been jailed in Bangladesh.

Rajeev Bhattacharya in his recent book 'ULFA – The Mirage of Dawn', writes: Pakistan's ISI continues to have "considerable influence" in Bangladesh despite the Awami League government through contacts with Bangladesh's DGFI and intelligence agencies; elements of northeast militants (less ULFA) remain "untouched" in Bangladesh and even some ULFA elements are back in Bangladesh; the US has been in contact with ULFA in Dhaka.

There are claims the coup in Bangladesh was US-inspired, aiming to plunge South Asia into chaos using proxy forces, similar to US involvement with groups like Al Qaeda and the Taliban

According to some intelligence reports, more than 2,000 Bangladeshi Islamist radicals plan to pledge allegiance to terrorist organisations - ISIS or Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). This was said by the group after celebrating the collapse of Delhi T-1 International Airport roof. Many Indian websites are hacked by Bangladeshi hacker groups. Radical Islamists in Bangladesh are calling hackers to hack the website of Indian Railways.

A Bangladeshi Islamist scholar 'Sayyed Madani' has warned the Indian Government to prepare for the battle of 'Ghazwa-e-Hind'. It was brought out in these columns earlier that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliate Hamid Gul Bahadur (HGB) Group, lodged in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), have also been trending Ghazwa-e-Hind since March 2024.

Khaleda Zia, heading the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has called for cancellation of all pacts signed with India by the Hasina government. If agreed, this would also encompass India-Bangladesh technical-level talks for renewing the 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty and the pact for conservation and management of the Teesta River, which China wanted and was miffed about Sheikh Hasina giving the deal to India.

India-Bangladesh relations are strained, with Dhaka canceling diplomatic passports, including Sheikh Hasina's, and filing murder charges against her, implying arrest upon her return

The return of an Awami League government in Bangladesh is very unlikely. The BNP, which is pro-Pakistan and pro-China, and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) are likely to call the shots. During the last BNP regime four major anti-India terrorist camps were running in Chittagong hill tracts with ISI and Al Qaeda instructors, The Bangladesh army was rehearsing 'cold start' into the Siliguri Corridor assisted by in-situ radicals-terrorists - possibly in conjunction with a Chinese thrust from the north. Significantly, Bangladesh Army has acquired 600 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) from China.

The Bangladesh Army is Chinese tanks, its Navy has Chinese frigates and missile boats and the Bangladesh Air Force fly Chinese fighter jets. In 2002, during the BNP regime in Bangladesh, China and Bangladesh signed a "Defence Cooperation Agreement" which covers military training and defence production.

Before becoming the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Mujibur Rehman wrote in his book, "Because Eastern Pak must have sufficient land for expansion; Eastern Pakistan must include Assam to be financially and economically strong." Now some maps are in circulation on social media showing Greater Bangladesh that includes West Bengal and parts of northeast India.

India made the mistake of not keeping Bangladesh indebted and dependent on it after liberating it. Therefore, India has a difficult time ahead. China will exploit the situation, that too speedily, despite the Global Times headlining, "All nations must allow the present administration in Bangladesh to bring normalcy'.