The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

The recent visit of President Mohamed Muizzu of Maldives to India signalled a reset in India-Maldives relations after a period of acrimony and the plank of "India Out" on which Muizzu had won the presidential race. The Maldivian economy, heavily reliant on tourism, is grappling with external debt reaching 110 per cent of GDP and foreign exchange reserves dwindling to about $440 million.

Both countries agreed to chart a new Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership, covering development cooperation, trade, digital services, defence, and more

During his visit, Muizzu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi comprehensively reviewed the India-Maldives bilateral relations. Prime Minister Modi underscored the importance of India's 'Neighbourhood First' Policy and Vision 'SAGAR'. Muizzu thanked India for the timely emergency financial assistance, as well as the decision to extend $400 million financial support and INR 30 billion as bilateral currency swap agreement.

Both leaders agreed to chart a new framework for a Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership, to include:

• Political Exchanges.
• Development Cooperation - including Indian assistance assisting in Maldives housing projects, Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP), Maldives Economic Gateway project, optimise Hanimaadhoo and Gan airports being developed by India, tourism and fishing projects in Haa Dhaalu and Haa Alifu atolls, and financing community development projects.
• Trade and Economic Cooperation – including exploring FTA.
• Digital and Financial Cooperation - launching India's UPI, Unique Digital Identity, Gati Shakti Scheme, RuPay and other digital services.
• Energy Cooperation.
• Health Cooperation.
• Defence and Security Cooperation – including

India to support Maldives by way of providing defence platforms, radar systems and others to augment MNDF, capabilities and advancing Maldives' maritime security requirements. India to also support Maldives on Hydrographic issues and disaster management including joint exercises to enhance interoperability.

Despite improving ties with India, Maldives continues to engage with China, including signing MoUs on strategic cooperation and a port development project during Muizzu's visit to China in January 2024

The Maldivian Ministry of Defence (MoD) building in Malé, constructed with India's assistance, is to be inaugurated soon. India to assist Maldives in the domain of Information Sharing and increase training of Maldivians under the ITEC programme in India.

• Capacity Building and Training – according to Maldives' needs and launch new programme to promote women-led development by imparting skills training plus establishing a Start-up Incubator-Accelerator in Maldives.
• People-to-People Linkages.
• Cooperation at Regional and Multilateral Fora.

When Muizzu assumed the Presidency of Maldives, he secured aid from the UAE for the India-funded Male Airport project, after he demanded removal of 77 Indian personnel and helicopters from Maldives and ordered review of 100 agreements with India. The most contentious issue was throwing out the Indian helicopters and naval personnel from Maldives; despite the fact that these Indian helicopters were providing medical assistance to Maldivians and help evacuate casualties from far off islands.

In January 2024, the MNDF signed a $37 million deal with Turkey to import Bayraktar TB2 drones to patrol its EEZ, which Turkey supplied in quick time. These drones, weighing 700 kg, have a range 300 km and 150 kg payload capacity can fly for 27 hours at altitudes of 18,000-25,000 feet and can undertake precision strikes using four smart munitions, as well as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.

On March 6, 2024, Muizzu announced that Maldives will not renew an agreement with India to conduct hydrographic surveys, and efforts are on to obtain facilities required to allow Maldives to itself conduct the underwater surveys of the country. This was days after a Chinese research vessel spent about a week around Male and more than a month outside Maldives' EEZ.

Speculation about the return of Indian helicopters and naval personnel to Maldives was dismissed by India's Foreign Secretary, who stated that no further troop deployments would occur

On March 21, 2024, Muizzu called India Maldives' closest ally while seeking debt relief. This was a somersault, from his rigid anti-India stance - possibly because of the burden of debt plus the upcoming parliamentary elections, which Muizzu won.

Following Muizzu's India visit, there has been speculatinon about Indian helicopters and naval personnel returning to Maldives. But on October 7, 2024, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri ruled out any further troop deployment in Maldives by India, and said in a special press briefing that the issue was addressed satisfactorily and there is no need to go back to the earlier situation.

India-Maldives relations are undergoing a reset with the recent visit of Muizzu. But in no way this should be viewed as diminishing China's influence in Maldives. During his visit to China in January 2024, Muizzu signed a number of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), including one on Strategic Cooperation for 'four years' and another on developing the Blue Economy. China is already committed to building a commercial port in Male. The four-year strategic cooperation MoU would see China building a port in Maldives under the pretext of "transshipment".

Reuters has reported on September 13, 2024 that China agreed to strengthen trade and investment in its latest demonstration of support and influence in Maldives. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Maldivian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade announced a MoU, with the two sides saying it was "a framework for cooperation" aimed at "promoting the settlement of current account transactions and direct investments in local currencies," as well as facilitating smoother trade. This has helped dispel the sentiment that Maldives could become the first country to default on Islamic sovereign debt.

It would also be naïve to assume that Chinese naval and hydrographic activities would reduce in and around Maldives. Take Sri Lanka for example, where a Chinese naval ship 'Po Lang' with 130 crew was given permission to dock in Colombo on October 8, 2024 on the pretext of it being "a training vessel", not a research vessel. Same will keep happening in Maldives.