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Evaluating the intricate landscape of India-US relations amidst the complexities of defence, trade, and geopolitical challenges
The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army |
India was declared a 'Major Defence Partner' by the US in 2016 after the US House of Representatives passed the 'India Defence Technology and Partnership Act'. Both countries have deepened strategic relations and are part of multilateral groups like the QUAD and I2U2. India is among 12 countries partnering with Americain the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. The Advanced Domains Defence Dialogue (ADDM) launched in May 2023 is also to cover Space and AI. In August 2023, India and the US launched Renewable Energy Technology Action Platform (RETAP) enabling lab-to-lab cooperation, pilot projects, testing of innovative technologies and capacity development.
US goods and services trade with India totaled $191.8 billion in 2022. Exports were $73.0 billion and imports were $118.8 billion. The US goods and services trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2022. Bilateral trade deficit in America's favour was $45.7 billion in 2022. In 2022-2023, the US has emerged as India's biggest trading partner as bilateral trade between India and the US increased by 7.65 per cent to $128.55 billion in 2022-23 against $119.5 billion in 2021-22. India has contracted for more than $20 billion US-origin defence articles since 2008. The $4 billion deal, for India to buy 31 MQ-9B Predator drones, is said to be the largest drone sale.
India was declared a 'Major Defence Partner' by the US in 2016 after the US House of Representatives passed the 'India Defence Technology and Partnership Act'
Despite the above, there is dismay why is the US exerting undue pressure on India and ignoring Indian national interests in South Asia and the regional construct. Is it the usual 'Mutt and Jeff' strategy the US habitually uses or is it more in the case of India? More surprises are adding to America's dark history. The US has accused India for plotting to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, founder of 'Sikhs For Justice'. It was mentioned in these columns earlier CIA involvement in killings of Dr Homi J. Bhabha and many Indian scientists (https://www.sps-aviation.com/experts-speak/?id=788&h=Pannun-Affair-Americas-Double-Standard). A CIA veteran has admitted that CIA was also behind the killing of Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri – as scripted in the book 'Conversations with the Crow' authored by Gregory Douglas. The reason is not difficult to understand – Pakistan President Ayub Khan had agreed to sign a 'No War Pact' with India and the Americans did not want that.
Witness the alacrity with which FBI Director Christopher A. Wray made a dash to Delhi to discuss the Pannun affair. But when queried about the terror attack on the Indian Consulate in San Francisco in May 2023, which was set ablaze a third time, Wray sheepishly said it was being "aggressively" probed – who is he trying to fool? Also, on December 23, the Swaminarayan Temple in Newark, California was vandalised and desecrated by Khalistanis but no arrests had been made. Pannun is a terrorist whose activities have been conveyed by India to the US in the past. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently told the media that India will consider the course of action as and when any evidence is made available.
In 2022-2023, the US has emerged as India's biggest trading partner as bilateral trade between India and the US increased by 7.65 per cent to $128.55 billion in 2022-23 against $119.5 billion in 2021-22
Meanwhile the CIA pet Pannun, identifying himself as spokesperson of the Kashmir-Khalistan Referendum Front has asserted that the terrorist ambush on two Indian Army vehicles in Rajouri Sector of J&K killing five, injuring threeand bodies of two soldiers mutilated on December 21, 2023 was a direct outcome of India's violence against Kashmiris. The weasel said, "Indian Occupied Kashmir is an internationally recognised disputed territory where India's Army has been engaged in genocidal violence for decades. Today the Indian army suffered casualties at the hands of Kashmiri freedom fighters, illustrating that violence inevitably begets violence." America will call this freedom of speech and the CIA would have sent him a Christmas cake, maybe gave him the script also.
Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Muneer and IS Chief Nadeem Anjum were recently welcomed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Victoria Nuland, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs – both regime change specialists. Muneer and Anjum were reportedly asked to warm up to India and stay away from China – some joke! The ISI is bumping terrorists who have outlived their utility andare a drain on the economy, since younger terrorists want more space and power. The new crop of terrorists, their employment in India and Bangladesh, even their role in Maldives were possibly discussed with the Blinken-Nuland and the CIA.
Muneer and Anjum must have been assured that notwithstanding daily attacks by TTP or Balochis in Pakistan, the US will stand firmly behind the Pakistani military. Pakistani military should do America's bidding and the US will support their every action, including the genocide in Balochistan, which anyway is no patch to what America has been doing globally. Moreover, the drone attack on the oil tanker MV 'Chem Pluto' and on MV 'Sai Baba' off the Indian Coast on December 23 and 24 respectively in all probability was engineered by the US via Pakistan in order to snare India into joining the US-led naval force in the Red Sea.
Not a single GE engine has been delivered yet although the delivery date of August 2023 has gone past. The noise about 'complete' transfer of technology (ToT) of the GE engine is also suspect because the critical technology of the core of the engine is unlikely to be shared.
The US is fully aware that regime change in Bangladesh is not good for India. Bringing the BNP or a BNP coalition would imply a pro China-Pakistan government in Dhaka. Yet, Washington is trying its level best to unseat the Sheikh Hasina government on the plank of "free and fair" elections. Similarly, part of the instability in Myanmar is because of the USaiding and supporting the armed groups and anti-junta forces. The ISI and Lashkar-e-Taiba are both linked to the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in Myanmar, which is another avenue for the CIA to exploit.
There is little chance of the China-supported military regime in Myanmar falling but the spillover violence and refugees in India are posing a problem. It may also be recalled that a 12-strong British army delegation of Sikh soldiers visited Pakistan in June 2022. This needs to be seen in context of Britain's links with Pakistan and the US, Canada and the UK harbouring and encouraging Sikh separatists.
The India-US defence technology and trade initiative (DTTI) was established in 2012 but what technology that the US has shared with India since then? Notably, In October 2019, the US backed off from proposed collaboration on jet engine technology under the DTTI. Now the joint Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (ICET) has been launched in 2023 but how this will boost Indian capabilities only the future will tell. Not a single GE engine has been delivered yet although the delivery date of August 2023 has gone past. The noise about "complete" transfer of technology (ToT) of the GE engine is also suspect because the critical technology of the core of the engine is unlikely to be shared.
Finally, the US is projecting itself to be the savior of India in the event of an India-China war but the fact is that it wants to use India as a proxy (Ukraine-style) to fight China and itself extract strategic and economic benefits sitting on the fence
Delivery of the MQ-9B Predator drones is also being delayed possibly to pressure India to reduce its ties and dependence on Russia. Interestingly, according to a veteran Indian Naval Chief, in the long history of MQ-9B Predator drones, there is not a single instance of these drones sighting a submarine even in shallow waters.
Finally, the US is projecting itself to be the savior of India in the event of an India-China war but the fact is that it wants to use India as a proxy (Ukraine-style) to fight China and itself extract strategic and economic benefits sitting on the fence. It is about time America should get off the high horse and stop double-timing India.