The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

Interacting with the local media on March 21, 2024, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu said India will continue to remain Maldives' "closest ally" and urged New Delhi to provide debt relief to his country. Maldives owed India $400.9 million in 2023. Muizzu said India aided Maldives and has implemented the greatest number of projects. Muizzu sought debt relief to repay hefty loans taken from India by successive governments.

In February 2024, Muizzu had asked New Delhi to remove Indian military personnel, numbering some 88, operating aerial platforms in Maldives for medical assistance and evacuating sick from remote islands. Addressing the Baa atoll Eydhafushi community on March 5, Muizzu said, "There will be no Indian troops in the country come May 10. The Indian military will not be residing in this country in any form of clothing. I state this with confidence." He said this as a civilian team from India arrived in Maldives to replace the military personnel.

Muizzu announced that Maldives will not renew an agreement with India to conduct hydrographic surveys and plans to acquire the facilities and machines required to do the exercise itself

On March 6, Muizzu announced that Maldives will not renew an agreement with India to conduct hydrographic surveys and plans to acquire the facilities and machines required to do the exercise itself. This was days after a Chinese research vessel spent about a week around Male and more than a month outside Maldives' EEZ. Muizzu said that Maldives is making efforts to obtain facilities required that will "allow Maldives to conduct the underwater surveys of the country by ourselves."

On March 7, Colonel Ahmed Mujuthaba Mohamed of the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) announced at a press conference that MNDF will have the operational control of the helicopters which India loaned to the island nation.

Earlier, Muizzu announced that Maldives is working to establish a 24X7 monitoring system for the Maldivian waters to ensure control of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). He said, the area of sea is twice as large as the entire land mass of the Maldives and noted that Maldives "has not been in control of its Exclusive Economic Zone despite its significantly large area."

Muizzu signed a free military assistance deal with China under which China would supply 'non-lethal' weapons to Maldives

The Export-Import Bank of China has provided $1 billion plus to the Maldives for upgrading an airport, a new bridge, and relocating a Maldives's port. 70 per cent of Maldives' total debt is attributed to Chinese projects, with an annual payment of $92 million to China; some 10 per cent of the country's entire budget. In Maldives, China is exerting influence over infrastructure, trade, and energy sectors, Muizzu has signed a free military assistance deal with China under which China would supply "non-lethal" weapons to Maldives.

In January 2024, MNDF signed a $37 million deal with Turkey to import Bayraktar TB2 drones to patrol its EEZ. These drones have arrived in Maldives. The Bayraktar TB2 drone 6.5m in length with 12m wings. Weighing 700 kg, it has a communication range 300 km and 150 kg payload capacity. It can fly for 27 hours at altitudes of 18,000-25,000 feet and can undertake precision strikes using four smart munitions, as well as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.

In a press statement, Muizzu's office said President Dr Mohamed Muizzu, the Commander-in-Chief of the MNDF, launched the MNDF's Air Corps and introduced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) into the service of the Defence Force, a powerful and important step in preserving the nation's independence and sovereignty. President introduced the UAV and signed the decree to start MNDF's air surveillance in the Maldives.

Muizzu calling India Maldives' closest ally on March 21 and seeking debt relief is being seen as a somersault after his continuing anti-India stance after becoming President. But the sincerity in these statements remains a question. This may have been on the advice of Beijing but the more likely reason for his conciliatory tone is because of Maldives' parliamentary elections due in mid-April. Outcome of these elections would affect the future stance to be adopted by Muizzu.

Muizzu signed a number of memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with China, including one on Strategic Cooperation for 'four years' and another on developing the Blue Economy

China would draw Maldives into its strategic sphere more during Muizzu's presidency. China has increased focus on the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the periodicity and numbers of its survey and research vessels prowling the region has gone up. Debt policy apart, China is adept at coaxing target countries according to its will. Sri Lanka, which recently said it would not allow Chinese survey and research vessels to dock in Sri Lanka, now says such vessels can dock for replenishment and repairs, which more or less implies the same.

During his visit to China, Muizzu signed a number of memorandums of understanding (MoUs), including one on Strategic Cooperation for 'four years' and another on developing the Blue Economy. China is already committed to building a commercial port in Male. Also, Muizzu ordered a review of the 100 odd projects in Maldives that India is undertaking. In all probability, the 2021 India-Maldives agreement for the Coastguard Harbour project in Uthara Thila Failu would also likely get axed on Chinese advice. The four-year strategic cooperation MoU would see China building a port in Maldives under the pretext of "transshipment".

On March 6, 2024, India commissioned INS 'Jatayu', converting an existing small naval detachment into an "independent naval unit" in the Minicoy island of Lakshadweep. The Indian Navy already has a base on the Lakshadweep island of Kavaratti. But INS 'Jatayu' is closer; at about 258 km from Maldives. Minicoy is the southernmost island of Lakshadweep which straddles the vital sea lines of communications.

China-Maldives strategic and defence cooperation must be viewed in context of China ramping up its defence budget by 7.2 per cent. It is also well known that China's "actual" defence expenditure is much more than official figures. According to the US Indo-Pacific command, PLA is rapidly upgrading its nuclear and conventional forces and plans to dominate the Indo-Pacific as a pre-eminent power with deep forays into the Indian Ocean using carrier based task forces.

China-Maldives strategic and defence cooperation must be viewed in context of China ramping up its defence budget by 7.2 per cent

Presently, the Indian Navy is actively engaged in anti-piracy and rescue operations in the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. The Navy has now deployed 11 of its 16 conventional submarines for the first time, which is viewed as a show of force to influence upcoming elections. But we must remember that the Chinese Navy, including its 61 submarines, is numerically larger than the US Navy and we need to seriously address our underwater and minesweeping capabilities.

Finally, our foreign policy needs to be tempered with information warfare and geared towards winning friends instead of maintaining a big-brother aggressive stance. In the instant case, sending civilians to replace our military personnel in Maldives despite clear signals by Muizzu was outright stupid. Looking around our immediate neighbourhood, aren't we isolating ourselves and letting China win the battle of the grey zone? Economic growth and assurances from the US-led West should not give us a false high because eventually we will be fighting alone, with the US sitting on the fence and selling us arms at exorbitant prices. America's demand of $1 billion per GE F414 engine should be enough indication.