The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

With Russia making gains in Ukraine, the latent fear in the US-led West is a Russian victory in the US-NATO war on Russia; Ukraine being an American proxy. But it is ironical for the West that despite the spate of US-NATO-EU sanctions against Russia, the Russian economy has emerged as the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of PPP, whereas economies of Western nations have taken a beating. Similarly, the US sanctions against China are not working and hurting US companies.

The US has been raising the bar in violating Russian redlines in Ukraine increasingly but with caution in the past. However, with a Russian win in Ukraine becoming more apparent, the US has allowed Ukraine to use American arms to attack targets deep inside Russia and is encouraging allies to similarly arm Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow reserves the rights to target countries who are supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Despite extensive US-NATO-EU sanctions, the Russian economy has emerged as the fourth largest in the world by PPP, while Western economies have suffered.

Desperation of America's Joe Biden Administration is more on two counts; that a Russian win would adversely affect the POTUS Joe Biden's chances of winning a second term in the US presidential elections in coming November, and performance of US weapons in Ukraine is far below expectations. According to reports, US weapons, including M-1 Abrams tanks, Switchblade drone, Patriot air defence missiles, M777 howitzers, Excalibur guided 155mm artillery rounds, HIMARS precision missile, GPS-guided bombs, and AI-aided Skydio drones, have fared very poorly.

On an average, Ukraine has been losing 10,000 drones every month and NATO is planning a "drone wall" stretching from Norway to Poland along the border of six NATO countries bordering Russia, which has been covered in these columns elsewhere. The success of Russia's electronic warfare (EW) in Ukraine has raised fears that if the US doesn't win the EW fight, the joint force could lose very quickly. Ukraine has, therefore, become an arms and technology testing laboratory for the US, especially since it is gearing up for conflict with China as well.

The success of Russia's electronic warfare (EW) capabilities in Ukraine has raised concerns that the US could quickly lose if it doesn't win the EW fight.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has been demanding supply of F-16 fighter jets over the past several months to stem the Russian advance. Simultaneously, he has also been complaining about the slow pace of training Ukrainian pilots in the US and allied countries for flying F-16 fighter jets. Zelensky argues that the ability to fly more F-16s will help Kyiv push back Russian forces from the frontlines in places such as Kharkiv, where Moscow has advanced in recent weeks.

Ukraine and Belgium have signed a security agreement that includes Belgium delivering 30 x US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. In December 2023, Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defence of Netherlands had announced that the Netherlands will make at least 18 x F-16 fighter aircraft available to Ukraine. As per the latest news, four European countries have pledged to cumulatively provide 95 x F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine; 24 by the Netherlands, 22 by Norway, 19 by Denmark and 30 by Belgium.

Russia's use of Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets armed with long-range missiles enhances its ability to intercept and shoot down Ukrainian missiles, reinforcing Russian air superiority.

In addition to the long range missiles and artillery being delivered to Ukraine, the West has been projecting the F-16 fighter jets as Ukraine's panacea against the Russian forces. But the Russian Ministry of Defence sprang a surprise on May 22, 2024, by releasing the footage of its Su-30SM2 multipurpose fighter aircraft equipped with a missile capable of destroying an F-16 fighter jet from a distance of 300 km; R-37M missile in the undercarriage on the modified SU would force the American F-16s to their base very quickly. In fact, the F-16s can be targeted before they take off or just as they take off from their base (s) in Ukraine.

The footage of the Russian multipurpose naval fighter Su-30SM2 showed the fighter, equipped with two R-77-1 medium-range air-to-air missiles and two R-37M long-range missiles. It was the first time that a Russian fighter jet was seen armed with missiles having a range of more than 300 km and designed to destroy high-speed aircraft.

The only 'close' examples of the Russian R-37M missile are the American AIM-47 Falcon (GAR-9) and AAM-N-10 Eagle missiles. However, since these missiles have a range of only 200 km, they were 'not' accepted by the US Air Force (USAF). In Ukraine, the R-37M missile has already established itself as one of the most formidable weapons in the Northern Military District. Russian MiG-31s have successfully shot down several Ukrainian aircraft using the R-37M missile. In December 2023, a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter was also shot down with the R-37M missile.

The footage of the Su-30SM2 equipped with R-37M missiles, capable of targeting F-16s before they take off, highlights the significant threat posed by Russian air power to the Ukrainian and NATO forces.

Ukraine has been facing Russian air superiority since the very launch of Russia's special operations that began on February 24, 2022. The R-37M missile increases the Russian air superiority by increasing the capability of the Su-30SM2 fighter jet in the air and ensuring the fulfillment of multi-purpose missions. The Su-30SM2 can take advantage of the extended range and high speed of the P-37M to effectively attack distant targets. In addition, the use of Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets armed with long-range missiles by the Russian Air Force and Navy will increase the Russian ability to intercept and shoot down Ukrainian Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles.

America-made F-16 fighter jets being supplied to Ukraine will reportedly be armed with AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. But according to analysts, Russian Su-30SM2 fighter jets and other aircraft will be able to fire missiles at the Ukrainian F-16s without any risk of being shot down by return fire. This is now the dilemma with the NATO hierarchy having seen the footage of the Russian multipurpose naval fighter Su-30SM2 equipped with two R-77-1 medium-range air-to-air missiles and two R-37M long-range missiles. The US wants the Russian war machine to be degraded and worn out in Ukraine but can hardly afford to take on Russia directly.