The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

Prime Minister Narendra Modi telephoned Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on December 26, 2022 and urged him for peace in Ukraine. Zelenskyy congratulated Modi for India having assumed the Presidency of G20 and asked support for his peace plan. Earlier in September 2022, Modi had told Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, “I know that today’s era is not the era for war.” Modi’s latter statement was blown out of proportion by the US to depict Modi ‘admonishing’ Putin for waging war, whereas, it is the US that forced Putin’s hand and America’s Biden Administration does not want war to end in Ukraine because its arms and oil industry is raking in billions of dollars.

The US engineered a coup in Ukraine in 2014 to install a US-lackey regime in Kiev and kick started the genocide in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Simultaneously supply of water and essentials were cut off to Sevastopol, Russia’s only warm water port, because of which Russia captured Crimea. Later, comedian Zelenskyy was cultivated by the US and installed as the President of Ukraine on May 20, 2019. He fitted American requirements especially in accelerating the genocide in the Donbas region.

America’s Biden Administration does not want war to end in Ukraine because its arms and oil industry is raking in billions of dollars

History shows that America’s hands are soaked in blood over past several decades or rather centuries with bombings, invasions, assassinations and genocide all over the world. Human rights and genocide are executed, used or ignored depending on what the US wants. American genocide in Vietnam and the Mỹ Lai massacre on March 16, 1968 are just one example among dozens. Ukraine’s heightened genocide in the Donbas region was the final instigation for Russia to launch special operations in Ukraine; more than inclusion of the Baltic State in NATO- going back on the promises made at the time of Soviet Union’s breakup that NATO will not expand.

The reasons why Russia launched special operations in Ukraine because of the genocide in Donbas are similar to why India invaded East Pakistan in 1971. But the US-led West and their think tanks never talk of the Pakistan army’s horrific genocide in East Pakistan and the magnificent victory of Indian forces. Naturally they cannot be expected now to criticise Pakistan army’s continuing genocide in Baluchistan since past few years. Indian forces liberated Bangladesh, handed over power and came back. This is what Russia wants to do after the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) have emerged democratically with proper voting in these regions.

But the above does not suit American warmongering plans. That is why Biden, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said, during Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington DC in December 2022, “He thought he could break NATO, he thought he could break the West, he thought he could break the alliance, he thought he could be welcomed by the Ukrainian people that were Russian speaking — he was wrong, wrong, and wrong.” The “wrong, wrong and wrong” is not just geriatric mumbling but shows Biden’s frustration because he knows that Russian forces would not leave these regions unless they are recognised and Ukraine stops attacking them.

The reasons why Russia launched special operations in Ukraine because of the genocide in Donbas are similar to why India invaded East Pakistan in 1971

Biden’s fear was evident at the joint press conference with Zelenskyy where he admitted that European leaders don’t want war with Russia and a third world war. Perhaps Europe’s conscience is also pricked with America covering up the genocide by Ukrainian forces, evidence of which is in public domain. Besides, there would be alarm over the United Nations saying nuclear war is possible and a separate assessment has emerged about which six military targets in the US are most likely to be hit in the event of a nuclear attack. But there is no mention of what will happen to Europe – which would hardly be spared. Moreover, Biden is bent upon upping the ante in Ukraine by supplying Patriot missiles and other advanced weapons to Kiev, perhaps also with American crew to man the Patriot systems disguised as Ukrainian troops.

The energy crisis is hitting the European economy hard. The British government has sanctioned a third coal mine. According to Belgium’s Bruegel Institute, €705.5 billion were allocated across European countries to shield countries from rising energy costs since the start of the energy crisis in September 2021. This would have gone up manifold with the war in Ukraine. In addition, Putin has decreed on December 26, 2022 that Russia will not supply oil from February 2023 to countries who directly or indirectly joined the US-induced price capping sanctions for Russian oil. Halting supply of Russian oil has also contributed to the unprecedented rise of Japan’s debt to 232 per cent of its GDP and servicing debt requiring 22.6 per cent or more of Japan’s annual budget.

As for Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan, the language and contents suggest it is drafted by the Biden Administration. It includes demands like:

• Russia to withdraw completely from Crimea, DPR and LPR;
• Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes, and;
• Building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space including guarantees for Ukraine.

The last two would be completely one sided (favouring Ukraine with the UN also doing America’s bidding) and the security architecture implies formalising the NATO presence in Ukraine; already inside Ukraine in large numbers.

Biden is bent upon upping the ante in Ukraine by supplying Patriot missiles and other advanced weapons to Kiev

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said, "Our proposals for the demilitarisation and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia's security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy. The point is simple, fulfill them for your own good or otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army."

The US has always used war to benefit economically. In the case of Ukraine it is not only the US arms exports which have shot up but also American oil is being sold to Europe at 8-10 times higher prices than Russian oil. Moreover, 60 per cent of agricultural land in Ukraine is owned by American companies who are getting richer with grain exports from Ukraine under the UN tutelage. Peace is unlikely in Ukraine with Zelenskyy dancing to the tune of the Biden Administration. But with Europe beginning to realise that the US is taking them for a ride at the expense of their economic degradation, a ceasefire may be possible if European leaders tell Biden they will not help fuel the war in Ukraine any more. That is the Catch 22 in Ukraine.