Tuesday, March 24, 2015, turned out to be black day for Germanwings, a low-cost subsidiary of Lufthansa, the renowned full service international carrier of Germany. Barely had the loss of AirAsia Indonesia in December last year receded from public memory, that the world was traumatised by another disaster in civil aviation when an Airbus A320 of Germanwings fell out of the sky over Europe. On this fateful day, a Germanwings Airbus A320 flying from Barcelona in Spain to Dusseldorf in Germany with 144 passengers and six crew members on board, crashed in a remote part of the Alps in southern France. As per reports by the crew of helicopters that have flown over the crash site that is at around 6,500 feet near Meolans-Revel, a small village of just 300 perched in mountainous terrain, there appears to be no possibility of any of the passengers or crew having survived the crash. The wreckage was found scattered on the mountainside in a narrow valley, a site somewhat difficult to access both by land and air.

At this point in time, the only bit of definite information available about the loss of flight 4U 9525 is that there was a distress message from the aircraft at 1047 local time, eight minutes before contact with the aircraft was lost presumably as it had crashed by then. While there is every chance that the cause of the accident will be established as the black box is reported to have been found and it is expected that the flight data recorder as well as the cockpit voice recorder will enable the investigators to unravel the mystery of the crash. Till such time that this is done, any attempt to unravel the mystery of the tragedy can only be based on the circumstantial evidence associated with the flight. Thus, analysis at this stage can at best be only speculative.

As per reports in the media, after take-off from Barcelona, flight 4U 9525 climbed to 38,000 feet while setting course for the destination in Germany. Unlike the loss of AirAsia Indonesia in December 2014 that was attributable to bad weather, in the case of the Germanwings flight, weather does not appear to have been a factor as the weather conditions reported were benign. The Captain of the aircraft was adequately experienced having served with the airline for 10 years during which time he had accumulated over 6,000 hours of flying on the Airbus A320. It is unlikely therefore that lack of experience was a factor contributing to the disaster and hence can be ruled out as a possible cause.

The fact that the captain did transmit a distress message a few minutes before the crash is an indication that he was confronted with a very serious emergency that, in all likelihood, could have arisen on account of a major technical failure. This is also borne out by the fact that flight 4U 9525 began to lose height rapidly which is indicative of the possibility of loss of engine power. An Airbus A320 airliner with full load of passengers is capable of maintaining height on engine. The fact that flight 4U 9525 hit the ground within a few minutes after transmission of the distress message suggest that the aircraft was unable to sustain flight at a constant altitude. There is therefore a strong possibility that for some reason, the aircraft lost power on both engines at the same time. Given the fact that the aircraft was flying over mountainous terrain, in such an eventuality, options available to the Captain of the aircraft must have also been limited. In another case, on January 15, 2009, an Airbus A320 of US Airways flight, flew through a flock of geese at 3,000 feet after take-off from New York City and lost power on both engines at the same time. The pilot, Chesley Sullenberger, a veteran aviator from the United States Air Force had the option to put the airliner down on the Hudson river which he did skillfully saving the lives of 155 persons on board. Unfortunately, in the case of flight 4U 9525, the Captain had no such option available to carry out a ‘dead-stick’ landing.

The A320 is the best-selling single-aisle aircraft from Airbus that is suitable for both short-haul and intercontinental routes. As per a safety analysis report prepared by Boeing, the Airbus A320 family of airliners has an excellent safety record with just 0.14 fatal accidents per million take-offs. In this particular case, the airliner involved was an ageing platform. After roll out from the assembly line, the aircraft had undertaken its maiden test flight in November 1990. It was then inducted into Lufthansa and commenced commercial operations in February 1991.

In 2013, the aircraft had undergone ‘C’ Check, a major maintenance procedure as also a routine maintenance check a day prior to the accident. While the German civil aviation industry is well known for the immaculate maintenance standards, the aircraft in question itself had completed 24 years of service with the airline and by any standard, it would be regarded as nearing the end of its commercial life. A major technical failure therefore could well be a possibility.