NEWS:
Russia is keen to expand licensed production of the Su-30MKI jets in India, Anatoly Punchuk, Deputy Director of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation told Interfax-AVN on March 29 this year. “The project has been successful. If our Indian partners are interested, Russia will definitely be ready to enlarge licensed production of Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets in India,” Punchuk said. India to test-fire the BrahMos cruise missile mounted on the Su-30MKI. The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates over 200 Su-30MKI jets most of which have been made in India at the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) facility at Nasik under licensed production. The total order as of now stands at 272 planes.

VIEWS:
With the fleets of the MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircraft approaching the end of their total technical life as also the fleets of Jaguars, MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 aircraft midway through their life-cycle and due for expensive midlife upgrade, the IAF went in for the Su-30MKI, the latest fourth-generation plus combat platform from the Russian aerospace industry which was readily available. On November 30, 1996, after two years of evaluation and negotiations, in a direct deal with Russia, India signed an agreement with the Russian aerospace major Sukhoi for the supply of 50 Su-30MKI aircraft in fly-away condition. This was followed by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that was signed in October 2000 for the licensed production of 140 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters at HAL Nasik. As per the MoU, the first Su-30MKI produced indigenously was planned to be delivered by 2004. The initial order for 190 aircraft was subsequently enhanced to 272. Delivery against this total order was initially scheduled to be completed by 2015; but has been delayed and is now expected to be completed by 2019. However, on account of the retirement from service of the older fleets of MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircraft, the strength of the combat fleet of the IAF is expected to dwindle to around 25 squadrons as against the newly authorised figure of 42. The implication is that by 2020, the combat fleet of the IAF will be deficient by over 300 platforms.

The Su-30MKI was expected to provide the IAF with fourthgeneration capability and was expected to be the mainstay of the combat fleet. Unfortunately this fleet has been plagued with a number of technical and maintenance issues on account of which the fleet serviceability has been hovering at around a pathetic 50 per cent as against the normally expected level of a minimum of 75 per cent for the IAF to be in a position to play a meaningful role in the event of a war. There have also been a number of major accidents due to technical failures resulting in not only loss of aircraft, but also of precious lives. The IAF was therefore not keen on inducting additional Su-30MKI aircraft beyond the 272 already ordered. Instead it was looking forward to inducting initially 126 and later another 63 of the Rafale medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) from Dassault Aviation of France. Unfortunately, 14 years after the project was initiated and eight years after the request for proposal was issued, the global tender for 126 MMRCA for which the Rafale was identified by the IAF amongst the six contenders as the preferred platform, had to be cancelled. Apparently, the contract negotiations hit a roadblock owing to an impediment that proved to be insurmountable. The fact that even the move initiated in April 2015 by the NDA Government to purchase 36 Rafale jets in a deal directly with the Government of France appears to be floundering, does not bode well for the combat fleet of the IAF.

Meanwhile, progress on the Indo-Russian project to develop the fifth-generation fighter aircraft, a twin-seat derivative of the Russian single-seat T-50 PAK FA, has been extremely tardy. While efforts are on to speed up the project, the IAF is not confident enough to bank on this platform to address the looming shortages.

The problem of deficiencies in the combat fleet of the IAF has been further aggravated by the complete failure of the Indian aerospace industry to deliver an operationally capable combat platform in the time frame and the numbers required. After a lapse of 32 years since the commencement of the project, the first indigenously designed, developed and manufactured light combat aircraft (LCA) Tejas was formally handed over to the IAF in January 2015 by Manohar Parrikar, the Minister of Defence. However, given the extremely low rate of production, it is highly unlikely that the LCA Tejas will be able to make up even partially, the catastrophic deficiencies that are staring the IAF in the face. And despite the rhetoric emanating from the industry about this indigenous platform, the IAF has not been able to develop the required level of confidence in the LCA Tejas and is reluctant to bet on this platform as a solution to its depleting operational potential.

It is now reported that the IAF has initiated a case to place an order on HAL for another 40 Su-30MKI aircraft. Given the urgency, the IAF may enhance the size of this order. Left with no alternative, the IAF is compelled to place all its eggs in one basket!