While 2009 witnessed the launch and progression of many military aviation related programmes for India’s armed forces, it is imperative to take a closer look at the emerging scenario in 2010

As if India’s emergence as an economic power house had not already created burning security issues, the ghastly cross-border 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008 provided more fuel to the fire—coming as yet another ‘wake up call’ for India’s security and defence establishments. The country’s burgeoning security concerns could not have received a greater jolt than the Mumbai carnage to drive home the urgency of accelerating the augmentation/modernisation programmes of India’s defence and paramilitary forces.

In the current security scenario, enhancement of capabilities in the field of military aviation has acquired the uppermost importance and while military aviation is generally synonymous with the air forces, even other services have felt the need to improve the capabilities of their respective air arms. While 2009 witnessed the launch and progression of many military aviation related programmes for India’s armed forces—which are worth taking a note of—it is imperative to take a closer look at the emerging scenario in 2010.

The IAF: Muscle Building

A well known fact is that the Indian Air Force (IAF), considered to be the fourth largest in the world, had allowed itself to be numerically depleted of almost a quarter of its combat aircraft strength before it began to wind itself up again to make up for the losses. Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik, while interacting with the media at the sidelines of the Air Force Day Parade on October 8 last year, succinctly admitted, “I would like to share one thing, we do not have a small force. We are on the low side of the sine curve and we are only going to go up... The strength of fighter squadrons has to increase. By 2014, it will start increasing. By 2022, we can expect to have the requisite numbers.”

Naik, in all probability, was alluding to the possible fruition of the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme with the phased induction of the selected aircraft commencing in 2014 as, till then, any new inductions through indigenous endeavours would at best be able to match the planned retirements of obsolete aircraft. Recently, the IAF had started receiving the Su-30MKI built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to revive some of the number-plated squadrons. These have helped in arresting the downslide for the time being. It may be recalled that the IAF had increased the planned induction of Su-30MKI aircraft to 230 and asked HAL to accelerate the rate of production for it to be able to keep pace with the phasing out of older equipment. But if HAL does not deliver the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas on time—the first squadron slated for formation with IOC aircraft in 2011—it would become extremely difficult to prevent further erosion in numbers till the MMRCA start getting inducted into squadron service. But, then, how is the MMRCA scenario shaping up?

The flight evaluation trials which commenced last year are still under way and likely to be completed by April-May 2010. It is hoped that the next set of steps, from staff evaluation, examination by Technical Oversight Committee for high value acquisitions, examination of commercial proposals of technically acceptable vendors, including examination of offset proposals, gets completed by the year-end and the contract awarded to the winning bidder by early 2011. Only then, the possible date set for a 2014 induction of the aircraft into the IAF could be met as, the present terms and conditions stipulate first induction 36 months after signing of the contract. In the meantime, reports suggest that all MiG-21 variants, except the Bison version are to be phased out by end-2011 (approximately seven squadrons) to be eventually replaced by the indigenous LCA. But, in the mentioned time frame, only the first batch of four LCAs is likely to be inducted into the IAF, resulting in huge deficiencies. It can only be hoped that phasing out of at least some MiG-21 squadrons would be staggered beyond 2011 to be able to stay in sync with the new inductions. This may have also prompted the IAF to continue inducting the Su-30MKIs in greater numbers to take the final tally to 280 aircraft by 2015-2016—50 more than the originally planned 230.

On the upgradation front, 2010 is likely to witness continuing efforts to upgrade greater numbers of MiG-27 aircraft, eventually bringing the total to 80. Jaguars are also slated for further upgrades selectively to DARIN-3 standards. Engine upgrade is also being considered for the entire fleet, that is, 120 aircraft—in two batches of 59 and 61 aircraft each; the choice would be between Honeywell F-125 and uprated Rolls-Royce Adour variant. In addition, all 62 MiG-29s are to be upgraded to SMT standards with the programme commencing end-2010 or early-2011, to be completed by 2014. Mirage 2000 H of the IAF are also in for upgrade with price negotiations still in progress with some of the OEMs and other concerned parties.

Acquisitions & Expectations

Indubitably, 2009 has been an exciting year for the IAF, even as 2010 beckons with tantalising promises. A major induction in 2009 included the first of the three much awaited Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). The arrival of the first AWACS aircraft in India on May 28 heralded a major milestone in the IAF’s drive to enhance its war fighting capabilities. Deployed in No. 50 Squadron at Agra, the AWACS is extensively engaged in training programmes to achieve fully operational status while it awaits two more of its kind to join the unit during 2010. In addition, the IAF is reportedly pushing its case for acquiring three more AWACS systems to get the required capability as also, supporting an indigenous programme for the acquisition of Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft based on an Embraer’s platform. On the VIP front, with the induction of all three BBJs, the IAF’s Communication Squadron is now well equipped to take on the vital task of flying the national leadership in comfort and safety,.

So far as transport aircraft are concerned, the six C-130s ordered for Special Operations are likely to be inducted by 2011, with the IAF already having an option to induct six more. In addition, the IAF has received the government go-ahead to acquire up to 10 C-17 Globemaster III aircraft to meet its heavy strategic airlift requirements for which a deal may be in the offing in the current year. For its medium transport aircraft requirement, a deal for joint Indo-Russian development of the aircraft has been signed with the first prototype flight expected in 2011. In another development, a deal for the current An-32 upgrade was signed with Ukraine in June last year with the first six aircraft being sent to Ukraine and the remaining to be upgraded at Kanpur in India.

The picture on the rotary wing front is brighter with the in-service induction of the first batch of 80 Mi-17V-5 (also known as Mi-171) under a $1.2 billion (Rs 5,450 crore) deal with Russia commencing this year. The programme is to be completed by 2013. Also, it is revealed that the IAF is planning a repeat order of up to 40 more. Deliveries of the indigenous helicopter ALH Dhruv continue with about two dozens already inducted out of a total planned induction of 54 (38 utility and 16 armed version). The IAF is also evaluating attack and heavy-lift helicopters to replace its existing assets. Reports also suggest that the short-listed AgustaWestland EH-101 may be acquired for VIP duties with inductions commencing in 2010-11, if the existing controversy over the price issue gets sorted out.