Resurgence in demand for business jets, driven primarily by a gradual recovery in global economic prospects, is now encouraging manufacturers to bring their latest offerings to the market

Business aviation has been languishing for nigh on two years. The global financial crisis and reckless attacks by the US politicians and public alike have seen the value of the market (in terms of new business aircraft deliveries) plunge by over 24 per cent. This made it the hardest hit of any aerospace segment. Though the pain was severe, the industry did not lose heart. Behind the scenes, executives and engineers continued toiling to develop new and improved models for the market, confident that a time would come when business jets might regain their rightful place as an indispensable productivity-enhancing tool. Yes, several important projects were scrapped—among them Cessna’s Columbus, Dassault’s Falcon SMS and Hawker Beechcraft’s Hawker 450. But what’s becoming increasingly clear is that faster the fall, the better the bounce. The Teal Group 20th Annual Business Aircraft Market Forecast and Industry Overview, released earlier this year, anticipates production of 13,965 business aircraft worth $233.1 billion (`10,72,260 crore) over the next 10 years (2010-19). These are no mean figures. They include 10,285 business jets worth $184.1 billion (`8,46,860 crore). Though it will take some more time to reduce high inventories of pre-owned jets, strong growth in deliveries of new aircraft can be expected to resume by 2012. And a host of new business jets have recently debuted or are readying for release over the next couple of years or so—just in time to capitalise on the rebound.

Before the economic crisis began there was much interest in very light jets. But according to the Teal Group, the most unusual aspect of the business jet scene at present is the unprecedented bifurcation of the market. The top half—jets costing $25 million (`115 crore) and more—barely felt any pain last year, with deliveries dropping by a mere 4.1 per cent. The bottom half—jets costing $4-24 million—fell by a catastrophic 42.8 per cent. The market has never seen bifurcation like this in any previous downturn or growth spurt. And this trend is expected to continue. The bottom half of the market is unlikely to rebound faster than the top half, implying a permanent shift in favour of more expensive models. Demand for large-cabin jets will also continue to outpace that for light jets by a striking degree. That’s good news for Gulfstream Aerospace.

Top of the Line

Gulfstream’s Jason Akovenko says, “We continue to see signs of gradual improvement in the business jet market. Customer interest in Gulfstream aircraft remains healthy and we have some 200 orders for the Gulfstream G650. We continue to see order strength across several emerging markets, including the Asia-Pacific region, one of the strongest markets for business aviation and for Gulfstream in particular. Large-cabin deliveries remain on track and will go up to 76 this year.” The Gulfstream G650 is indeed the most mouth-watering prospect for the next couple of years. Promised for first delivery in 2012, it will fly out of the factory as the world’s fastest and longest range business jet. Twin Rolls-Royce BR725 engines will power the G650 to a maximum cruise speed of Mach 0.925, making it the world’s fastest civilian aircraft. It will also have an astounding range of 7,000 nautical miles. Its range, size and speed may even merit the creation of a new market category. The world’s fastest business jet is a tag Cessna has rightfully claimed for the Citation X since 1996, when the aircraft made its debut. The fleet has now accumulated more than a million hours. Since 2003, when Concorde bowed out, the Citation X has been the fastest civilian aircraft in the sky, of any size or type. This is the distinction the G650 now seeks to claim. Cessna is unlikely to surrender without a fight, but there’s only so much speed ramp-up remaining before compressibility effects set in and the much-reviled sonic boom is generated. Companies like Aerion are also striving to bring a supersonic business jet to the market within the next five-six years, but that’s a different story. The G650’s tall and wide-bodied cabin will boast the latest in comfort and convenience.

And what would Bombardier do to preserve its present pride of place at the pinnacle of the business jet market, courtesy the Global Express XRS? Bombardier believes the G650 is likely to be inferior to the Global, but concedes that the former’s matchless range of 7,000 nm will indeed be momentous. Longer range aircraft contribute immensely to the globalisation of business aviation and Bombardier will need to move quickly to claim the top spot in this category. It might either choose a clean-sheet design or decide to upgrade. The latter option—a so-called Super Global Express—could be ready by 2013. It will be far less costly to bring to fruition and is an option that probably makes better business sense. The Super Global Express might simply lengthen the existing XRS cabin and coax out increased range by improving wing aerodynamics. The new aircraft will probably use twin Rolls-Royce BR725 engines—the same as the Gulfstream G650.