The Author is Former Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Training Command, IAF

On May 31 this year, as per the Foreign Ministry of Malaysia, as many as 16 fighter aircraft belonging to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) of China, intruded into the airspace over Malaysia and flew over the nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) without permission from the regional air traffic control of the nation despite being requested repeatedly to seek proper clearance to do so. The Malaysian Air Force scrambled fighter jets to visually confirm the intrusion. On the same day, an Ilyushin Il-76 heavy transport aircraft of the PLAAF was observed to be flying in the airspace over the maritime zone of Malaysia. The intrusion into the airspace over Malaysia by military aircraft of the PLAAF is regarded as a serious threat not only to the safety of aircraft, both civil and military that operate in the airspace over Malaysia with proper authorisation, but also to national security and sovereignty of the nation as well. Such unwarranted intrusions by aircraft of the PLAAF into the airspace of countries in the region, are bound to impinge on and strain relations between China and the nations in the South East Asian region.

Earlier this year, on April 12, as many as 25 military aircraft of China including an Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, had intruded into the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) of the air space under the control of Taiwan. Instances of incursion into Taiwanese airspace by aircraft of the PLAAF, appears to have become a regular feature as it has been occurring frequently as also, this menace has increased significantly particularly so over the last two years. Aggressive action by China has not remained confined to aerial activity alone. In April this year, a vessel of the Chinese Coast Guard rammed into a fishing boat in the South China Sea in the vicinity of the Paracel islands and managed to sink it. The fishing boat that was destroyed was owned by Vietnam. This incident was followed by another one involving a conflict between a survey vessel of China and an oil exploration vessel of Malaysia. This conflict took place in the territorial waters of Malaysia in the vicinity of Borneo. This episode was a matter of serious concern not only for Malaysia but even for major nations such as Australia and the United States (US) who in response, opted to deploy their warships in the area.

CHINA – AN EMERGING POWER

The episodes of airspace violation as also the stand offs between Chinese ships and those of Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea as described above, may be regarded by some as incidents that are minor in nature or of little concern and may not appear to be very significant. However, what is of relevance is the phenomenal growth of China over the years into a power house, both as a military and economic giant and endowed with significant nuclear capability as well. This certainly is bound to have far reaching implications especially for nations in South and South East Asia. Today, in terms of the size of population, China is the largest state in the world. As compared with the nations in South and South East Asia, with the exception of India, in terms of size and population, China is several times larger than all other states. China is being increasingly regarded by a majority of nations in the region as well as in the world as a developing threat, a perception that led to the formation of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD as early as in the year 2007. This organisation was established by four major nations of the world namely India, the US, Japan and Australia. Essentially, this move to initiate the setting up of QUAD had been made with the aim of countering China’s growing might as also for strengthening of military ties amongst the four member nations. Since the time that Quad was formed, there has been a distinct hardening of attitude towards China among all the four members of the newly created organisation who did and continue to regard China as the most serious threat to their security.

Ever since Xi Jinping became the President of China, this largest state in the world has become increasingly nationalistic and assertive

Ever since Xi Jinping became the President of China, this largest state in the world has become increasingly nationalistic and assertive. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, the armed forces of China have been modernised rapidly and the nation has enhanced the presence of its armed forces in the South China Sea and the East China Sea – both areas being under unending dispute between China and the smaller nations in the region.

ROLE OF THE ARMED FORCES OF CHINA

The rapid growth of both economic and military power of China and how it chooses to wield these capabilities, will undoubtedly have implications for the world, but more importantly, for the nations in the Asian region on whom this will have a multi-dimensional impact. In the authoritarian political system in China, the armed forces of the nation shoulder a major responsibility in crafting the security policy of the nation. Thus the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as well as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the PLAAF ultimately have an important role to play in handling the strategic and security scenario in the South Asian and South East Asian regions. The countries that will have direct impact on their security are those in the neighbourhood of China. These countries are South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. All these countries will be affected one way or the other by the changing economic and military capabilities of China, its trade and defence policies, its approach toward resolution of bilateral disputes and how it will wield its economic and military might as it grows stronger. A country such as Indonesia that does not share a land border with China, will generally be pressurised by China’s naval power in handling its disputes with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea as also its strategic and military relationship with other nations such as Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD

China has imposed small scale wars on India in 1962 and 1967. From the events in the recent past in Eastern Ladakh and activities of China in India’s neighbourhood, it appears that China intends to have tense relationship with India with the possibility of a large scale conflict in the future. China has taken away ten per cent of territory from Bhutan and its attempts to annex more of Bhutanese territory in Doklam in 2017 was successfully foiled by India. Myanmar is under very strong influence of China that appears to have instigated and supported the recent coup in the country. China has been successful in building a major international seaport at Hambantota in Sri Lanka over which it has taken over full control. Pakistan continues to be a faithful ally of China and consequently, a major security problem for India especially as both possess nuclear weapons.

CHINA’S PLANS FOR THE FUTURE

To prepare for the challenges that may confront China in the future, the leadership of the nation continues to focus primarily on three aspects. Firstly, it will continue to enhance its military power to attain a level such that it can easily smother any dispute that may arise with any nation or nations over territorial claims in the South China Sea. Secondly, China’s intention appears to be to enhance its military and economic capabilities to a level such that it serves as a deterrent against even major players such as the US, Australia and India that the nation may have to confront in the future. Thirdly, in the long term perspective, China wants to make sure that the nations in the Asia Pacific region will regard China as an integral part of security arrangement for the region newly crafted by them and that its interests are not undermined or compromised in any way. China thus aims to perpetuate its status as a major and dominant player in the Asia Pacific region.