While it would be foolhardy to suggest India gets into an arms race to match its adversaries ‘one-to-one’ in the field of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, there is no denying the requirement for creating a credible nuclear deterrence capability to thwart any nefarious designs by its two belligerent neighbours—China and Pakistan

With the launch of the 50-tonne Agni-V missile from the Wheeler island off Odisha coast on April 19 and its 20-minute flight to an ‘impact point towards southern Indian Ocean’, India crossed the threshold of a new era in its ‘credible’ strategic deterrence capability—that could bring all of China and much more within its strike envelope. With the successful outcome of the very first test launch of Agni-V, India stood ready to join the super-exclusive intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) club that boasts of just five members so far, with one more as probable. But the media’s euphoric contention that India has yanked open the door to the ICBM club is still a far cry from becoming a reality.

However, much on that later; first a look on the international response to India’s historic feat. Pakistan, India’s closest neighbour and most possessed to achieve parity with everything India does, responded through its websites and news agencies highlighting the launch; but officially it showed little concern with the Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman saying only that India had informed of the test ahead of time in line with an agreement they have. Unofficially, it was stated that Pakistan was gearing up to test-launch the newer version of its Shaheen missile with an improved range claimed to cover practically the whole of India, even when fired from deep in Pakistan. How quickly it reacted to the Agni-V launch was evident when within a week of its test flight, Pakistan on April 25, test fired Hatf-4 (some called it Shaheen1A), with an undisclosed range—presumed to be in the region of 1,000 km—and capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

The West was generally supportive of the Indian endeavour with BBC from UK reiterating, “The launch marked the moment India joined an ‘elite nuclear club’ that also included China, Russia, France, the US, the UK and probably Israel.” The United States while urging all nuclear-capable states to exercise restraint regarding nuclear capabilities in general terms singled out India praising its excellent non-proliferation record and that “it had engaged with the international community on such issues”. Responding to comparisons with North Korea’s attempted launch of a long-range rocket the same week, a US State Department spokesman said that “India’s record stands in stark contrast to that of North Korea, which has been subject to numerous sanctions by the United Nations Security Council”.

China, as anticipated, came up with a two-pronged reaction. On the diplomatic front, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, Liu Weimin said, “China and India are large developing nations. We are not competitors but partners. We believe that both sides should cherish the hard-won good state of affairs at present and work hard to uphold friendly strategic cooperation to promote joint development and make positive contributions towards maintaining peace and stability in the region.” In stark contrast to the sugar-coated words, the real Chinese reactions found their way to China’s Global Times spewing out not only negative commentary but also threat-laced warnings. It reported that India “still lags behind in infrastructure construction, but its society is highly supportive of developing nuclear power and the West chooses to overlook India’s disregard of the nuclear and missile control treaties”. It warned India not to “over-estimate its strength” claiming India would stand “no chance” in an arms race. “Even if India has missiles that could reach most parts of China, that does not mean it will gain anything from being arrogant,” it reiterated. “India should be clear that China’s nuclear power is stronger and more reliable,” it added.

The somewhat rude utterances by the Global Times might sound jarring to the ears of the global civil community, but there is certainly an element of truth in what the Chinese paper has penned down. In its nuclear weapons and delivery systems capability, India is no match to China and the launch of Agni-V missile—currently only a technology demonstrator and not a full-fledged weapon system—can hardly be touted as the latest sign of an escalating arms race or a game-changer in India-China relations. Therefore, while being justifiably proud of the historical achievement; India, and specially its over-hyped media, must refrain from overt chest-beating, nor adopt an attitude of arrogance. Instead, India should quietly go about building the necessary capabilities to achieve the minimum required deterrence to match its nuclear doctrine. Agni-V will take another three to four years before it emerges—canisterised and on road/rail mobile launchers—as a full-fledged weapon system. Further, it may take a decade before the system is produced in requisite numbers to provide—the still largely elusive—‘second-strike’ capability, needed so badly by the country to match its doctrine of ‘no first use’. Simultaneously, India would have to work hard to operationalise the third, subsurface leg of its nuclear triad by equipping its indigenous nuclear powered submarine(s) with suitable nuclear-tipped SLBMs.