With two not-so-friendly nuclear neighbours, the IAF requires advanced fighters, sophisticated support platforms and smart long-range weapons. The second article of this five-part series on MMRCA affirms once again that if the fighter deal is signed without further delay, it will help IAF achieve its currently authorised combat squadron strength of 39½ before 2020.

Air power today is the dominant force that has changed the basic nature of warfare. The success of air power in conflicts in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan had put a stamp of primacy. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) have undertaken a massive modernisation programme. With two not-so-friendly nuclear neighbours, the Indian Air Force (IAF) requires advanced fighters, sophisticated support platforms and smart long-range weapons, to cater to a possible two-front war. The IAF has also been trying to convince the Indian leadership that there was a need to eventually increase combat squadrons from hitherto targeted 39½ to between 50 and 55 squadrons. All this would require significant funding over the next two decades and the defence budget increased to at least three per cent of GDP. The procurement process would also have to be speeded up. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Indian aircraft industry too would have to get their act right. As the IAF unfolds its acquisition plans, it is also relevant to understand the plans and aspirations of the PLAAF and the PAF.

People's Liberation Army Air Force

The second largest Air Force, PLAAF, commanded by General Ma Xiaotian, has 3,30,000 active personnel and over 2,500 aircraft. Supported by a booming economy and flush with funds, the PLAAF has been under aggressive modernisation. The older aircraft are quickly being phased out and replaced by fourth-generation fighters. Besides, fifth-generation fighters are already under flight testing. Induction of fourth-generation aircraft began in the 1990s with acquisition of Su-27s and induction of domestic J-10 and the FC-1 combat aircraft. Large numbers of Su-30MKKs, upgraded Su-30MK2s, J-11s, Il-76s, and IL-78 tankers have been added. Small numbers of futuristic stealth aircraft J-20 are already flying and the J-31 is under development. The Y-9 (IL-76 Variant) and Y-20 heavy transport aircraft will eventually form the modern transport fleet. The Z-15 and Mi-17 medium-lift helicopters and WZ-10 attack helicopters will be part of the rotary-wing fleet. Entire India is well covered by the Chinese surface-to-surface missile arsenal. With seven Chinese airbases at Kashgar, Hotan, Gongar, Pangta, Linchi, Hoping and Gar Gunsa in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and many more in Chengdu Military Region, east of Myanmar, the air threat to India is significant. In numerical terms, the PLAAF is set to become the largest tactical fighter force in the world and will soon be the second best in technology too. This combined with 450 aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and the soon to be inducted state-of-the art aircraft carriers, makes a powerful enemy across India’s northern border for the IAF to contend with.

Pakistan Air Force

The 65,000-strong PAF led by Air Chief Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt has nearly 900 aircraft, 400 of which are combat aircraft including F-16s C/D, JF-17s, Mirage-III/V and the F-7P. The PAF has medium-size transport and helicopter fleets with C-130 and Mi-17s as the workhorses. The IL-78 aerial tankers were inducted in 2009. The PAF has significant electronic warfare (EW) capability which includes Falcon DA-20, Saab 2000 Erieye and Chinese Shaanxi AEW&C aircraft. It is also actively pursuing an ambitious missile and nuclear weapons programme. The PAF has enjoyed support from the United States for years. China, the all-weather friend, has also supported build up of the PAF in the recent years. Pakistan has fought four wars with India and continues to export terrorism across the border. Even though eventually defeated, the PAF gave the IAF a tough fight. The Pakistani military exercises immense influence on the foreign policy of the nation and has a stake in not resolving differences with India. Internal polls have shown that there continues to be high degree of animosity against India. The threat from across India’s western border continues to be significant. The joint work between China and Pakistan in many fields and rhetorical statements by their leaders indicate that chances of facing a two-front war by India are significant. The PAF has maintained a high state of operational readiness and has been participating in air exercises with other countries. Trigger incidents in India, like the attack on the Parliament and in Mumbai was followed by the PAF deployed in full strength at all operational locations.

Time to Build Numbers

India, with a land frontier of 15,200 km and a coastline of 7,500 km, happens to be very close to the centre of the most war-prone region of the world. It has serious border disputes with the two nuclear neighbours. While Pakistan has kept India’s military embroiled, China wants to restrict India’s sphere of influence in South Asia. The IAF, the world’s fourth largest air force, is down to 34 squadrons and it is reportedly the bottom of the numbers curve. The PAF has plans to increase from the existing 22 to its target of 28 squadrons. Currently, the IAF: PAF ratio of 1.54:1 is a far cry from the once 3:1 dominance. The force ratio edge of the IAF over PAF is thus at an all time low. Former Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi had stated in a seminar in 2007 that “the redrawn strategic boundaries of resurgent India could extend from the Gulf to the Strait of Malacca and from the Central Asian Republics to the Indian Ocean. The enlarged strategic dimension necessitates not only a radical change in strategic thinking but also accentuates the role of aerospace power in the new security arena”. The IAF which was a tactical air force till a decade ago, has gradually developed a strategic reach and is in a position to aspire to dominate the skies over the Indian Ocean. This dream can be fulfilled by 2020 if its acquisition plans go through. The number of squadrons must also go up to a figure of 50 plus if a two-front war has to be catered to. The IAF will require advanced new generation fighters, sophisticated defence systems and force multipliers. The need is also to build up force levels quickly lest the IAF is left too far behind the PLAAF and the PAF bridges the gap. This would mean fast-tracked acquisitions.

The multi-role Su-30MKI is the mainstay with 272 ccurrently targeted. Jaguars, MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s are under upgradation. The MiG-21s (Bison) can be extended for five more years with reducing numbers. MiG-27s will become difficult to sustain beyond 2017. Jaguars could fly till 2022. The light combat aircraft (LCA) Tejas would now join the fighter fleet only in late 2014. The Indo-Russian joint project for fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) can fructify not earlier than 2018. The delay in the availability of the LCA Tejas and the long selection/induction process for imported aircraft has resulted in stretching the old fleets of MiG-21s and 27s as also a significant gap has developed in the fighter fleet. Conscious of this, it was decided to induct 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA). After a gruelling process, the French Dassault Rafale was announced the winner. If all were to go on track, the IAF of 2020 should consist of up to 15 squadrons of Su-30MKI, three squadrons each of the upgraded Mirage 2000 and MiG-29s, six squadrons of upgraded Jaguar strike aircraft, six squadrons the of Rafale MMRCA, seven squadrons of Tejas LCA and two squadrons of fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA). This would add up to 42 squadrons. Delay in LCA Mk II however may reduce the projected number of squadrons.

As the IAF’s long list of acquisitions such as Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, additional Lockheed Martin Super Hercules C-130Js, Boeing CH-47F Chinook heavylift, Boeing AH-64D Apache attack helicopter and the various other force multipliers unfolds, crucial to the numbers of fighter squadrons is the early finalisation of the MMRCA deal. To dominate the Indian Ocean region, India needs long-range fighters such as the Rafale which have experience of across Mediterranean, longrange missions in Libya and Mali. Induction of the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar in the subcontinent will be a game changer. The Rafale will bring a bouquet of very lethal weapons. It will enhance India’s military power and the response capability by many folds. The potential of technology transfer and offsets will give a boost to indigenous capability for design and manufacture of combat jets. When Jaguars start phasing out, the IAF may choose to exercise option clause for 63 additional Rafales if they have proven their capabilities.

India’s national objective to emerge as an eminent power in Asia by 2020 is highly achievable if we get our act right as a nation. In fact, India has everything that any great nation requires—manpower, knowledge, natural resources, a functioning democracy and large sized apolitical armed forces. The IAF is currently undergoing historical changes, transforming from a subcontinental force, to one with a continental reach. With rapid modernisation by 2020, all fighter aircraft of PLAAF will be of fourth-generation plus. The IAF can achieve its currently authorised combat squadron strength of 39½ before 2020 if the MMRCA deal is signed without further delay. The MMRCA induction combined with reaching the authorised strength is the basic requirement for the IAF to be able to take on the PLAAF. The number of squadrons must increase to cater to two fronts. The IAF and the nation are keeping the fingers crossed.

(To be continued)