After its first flight in December 2006, the F-35 was downgraded from “very low observable” to “low observable” due to increase in the radar cross section. In 2008, RAND Corporation conducted simulated war games in which Russian Su-35 fighters defeated the F-35. The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin contested the study. In November 2011, a Pentagon study identified areas of concern that remained to be addressed. These included HMDS, fuel dump subsystem posing a fire hazard, integrated power package unreliability, stealth-linked survivability, long-term structural strength of the airframe, software development delays, increase in aircraft weight, vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) issues for the F-35B, thermal management problems, environment control, delay in the development of automated logistics information system and lightning protection. By October 2012, Lockheed said it had resolved most technical issues of the helmet-mounted display except night vision performance. A US Navy study found that the F-35 would cost 30-40 per cent more to maintain than current jet fighters.

Cascading Delays and Implications

In the first-two-and-a-half years of the flight test programme, i.e. up to June 2009, only 100 sorties had been completed. Delays had already set in. Several test flights required beyond-routine maintenance to get the aircraft flyable again. As of March 2010, the programme had consumed a million man-hours more than predicted.

By February 2012, due to delays and cost escalation, the F-35 order book had changed. Italy was the first to reduce numbers from 131 to 90 aircraft. Other nations reduced initial purchases or delayed orders. The US itself cancelled the initial purchase of 13 aircraft and postponed orders for another 179. Australia decided to buy the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet as a stopgap arrangement. The decision to manufacture the aircraft before the flight testing, in retrospect, is seen as a decision flawed.

The programme has had critics within the United States. Passions are running high and sometimes the finger pointing is unreasonable considering the scale of the programme. Money remains the biggest issue. According to a 2012 US Government accountability report, the F-35 costs have increased 93 per cent in real terms over the 2001 estimate. Unlike other military aircraft, the F-35 is designed for continuous upgrades throughout its life. The aircraft would be operational till the late 2060s. The current schedule has the delivery of basic combat capability by late 2015, followed by full capability Block-3 software by end 2016. The development phase should be completed in 2018 when the Block-5 configuration is delivered several years later and considerably over budget.

In 2011, The Economist magazine warned that F-35 was in danger of slipping into a “death spiral” where increasing per aircraft cost at $133 million ( Rs. 732 crore) would lead to cuts in numbers ordered. The estimated $323 billion ( Rs. 17,76,500 crore) development cost, makes it the most expensive defence programme ever. Compare this to $589 billion ( Rs. 42,30,500 crore) which the US has spent on the war in Afghanistan. The total 50-year life-cycle cost for the entire fleet of military aircraft in the US is estimated to be $1.51 trillion or $618 million ( Rs. 3,399 crore) per plane.

The operational or combat-realistic tests are to start in 2017 with results available in 2019. There are uncertainties ahead. Lockheed’s development roadmap extends until 2021, including a Block-6 engine improvement in 2019. Testing and securing the 24 million lines of software code for the plane and its support systems is the most critical programme issue. Lockheed officials remind that big commercial plane makers had also run into delays with their most touted planes, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and Airbus’s A350.

Aircraft Deliveries

Thirteen aircraft were delivered in 2011 and 30 in 2012. As per current plan, 30 planes will be delivered annually for the next two years. But the Pentagon will still have bought 365 planes before the flight tests end in 2017. Full production will start around 2019 and go on till the mid-2030s.

Air Force Flying Training

Flights at Eglin Air Force Base began on March 6, 2012, and by August 24, 200 sorties were completed. As per the pilots, “The aircraft have matured dramatically. The aircraft are predictable and seem to be maintainable, which is good for the sortie production rate.” The F-35s at the base no longer need to fly with a chase aircraft and are operating in a normal two-ship element. On November 2, 2012, F-35A and Bs completed a total of 500 sorties at the base. As the F-35 is a software-defined aircraft, maintenance personnel find that deficiencies identified can be fixed by simply rebooting of the software. During the low-rateinitial-production phase, the US had taken a tri-service approach to developing tactics and procedures using flight simulators. Concept of operations and employment for the aircraft were already being developed even before it was in service.

The Way Forward

The fly-away cost per aircraft could be anywhere up to $200 million ( Rs. 1,100 crore). The Pentagon is not inclined to make further investments and the US Congress finds it unaffordable. Australia feels threatened as the Russian PAK-FA and the Chinese J20 are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Some have questioned the reliance on a short-range aircraft to engage China.

The UK would have to take a call in 2015 whether it wishes to upgrade the Typhoon or buy additional F-35s. This has consequences for the European aerospace industry. Not to develop the Typhoon, which still has potential buyers in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Malaysia, would mean that British aircraft building expertise would fade. There is a strong possibility that beyond 2030, the F-35 will be the only high-performance fighter in service with the RAF and the Royal Navy. Both have seen downsizing recently. There is talk of altered priorities in favour of a pilotless aircraft. The nation that created the Spitfire and the Harrier could well end up being out of aircraft production business.

As he exits Afghanistan, President Barack Obama, under Congress pressure, is moving to cut the $700 billion ( Rs. 38,50,000 crore) plus military budget, of which the F-35 project could be a prime target. But a programme of this magnitude which employs close to 35,000 workers, covering many constituencies, does have its political backers. It’s a Hobson’s choice having already spent $65 billion ( Rs. 3,57,500 crore). Todd Harrison, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, says: “It is simultaneously too big to fail and too big to succeed.” Teething problems occur in all programmes and there are “naysayers” everywhere. This fighter pilot’s dream plane has no choice but to succeed. The best brains are at work. It is just a matter of time.

(Concluded)