NEWS
A US-made C-130J military transport plane, one of the most modern aircraft acquired recently by the IAF, crashed today near Gwalior, killing all the five crew members, including four officers. The aircraft, procured at an estimated cost of Rs. 965 crore a piece along with five others, crashed an hour after taking off from Agra airbase for an exercise, officials said. The IAF has ordered a court of inquiry to ascertain the cause of the mishap. IAF sources said the aircraft, fitted with four Rolls-Royce engines, could not even communicate about the emergency before it lost contact with ground control. The black box of the aircraft has been recovered and is being analysed to assess the reason for the crash.

VIEWS
The unthinkable has happened. However, at the outset, it would be necessary not to make any comparisons with the accidents in the recent past in the Indian Navy especially in the submarine fleet which unfortunately culminated in the unfortunate episode of the resignation of Admiral D.K. Joshi, Chief of Naval Staff, an outstanding professional who displayed exemplary and unprecedented moral courage, not generally witnessed even in the armed forces in recent times. Unlike the ageing fleet of submarines in the Indian Navy, the C-130J Super Hercules is one of the most modern and technologically advanced and proven fourengine military transport aircraft in the world. While there may be some justification in divining a parallel between the Indian Navy submarines and the MiG-21 fleet if the Indian Air Force (IAF), the ill fated C-130J Super Hercules, by no stretch of imagination, can be equated with the MiG-21.

As for the most baffling crash of the Super Hercules of the IAF, the aircraft in question was number two in a formation of two tasked for an ultra-low level tactical exercise for training aircrew in special operations. The formation was using Station Keeping Equipment which facilitates automated position keeping, an attribute extremely useful in difficult and challenging flight profiles especially at ultra-low altitudes, associated with special operations for which the Super Hercules is optimised.

It is understood that the exercise was nearing the terminal phase when the formation commander ordered climb to dropping height of 1,000 feet above ground level over the selected dropping zone. Thereafter the formation was ordered to execute a turn back to base during which the formation leader lost contact with the aircraft flying as number two. Soon after, the leader spotted smoke billowing from the wreckage of the aircraft that was strewn over a few kilometres along the bank of the Chambal River.

From reports in the media, it appears that the C-130J went down somewhat suddenly after ascending to dropping height of 1,000 feet and while turning back on course to base. What is more intriguing is the fact that there was no radio call from the aircraft about the emergency despite the fact that the aircraft had ascended to 1,000 feet above ground level. This is somewhat intriguing as there would have been enough time available to make a radio call in the event of the aircraft encountering a technical failure or malfunction. Prima facie it appears that the development that led to the crash was much too sudden, catastrophic and overwhelming, allowing no reaction time to the crew and the aircraft totally out of their control. At present, the IAF has no explanation as to why a super safe Super Hercules C-130J should go down in such a mysterious fashion. In any case no explanation from the IAF ought to be expected at this stage as the Court of Inquiry still has a long way to go before they arrive at a plausible explanation for the mishap.

Fortunately, as reports in the media indicate, the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and the flight data recorder (FDR), components of the black box, have been recovered. Recordings on these will be milked and analysed by the original manufacturer (OEM) Lockheed Martin. With the help of the data thus obtained, the Court of Inquiry would be able to reconstruct the last few minutes of the flight and hopefully provide a plausible explanation as to why the IAF lost this thousand crore, highly sophisticated and modern special operations aircraft.

While the OEM is at work unfolding the mystery locked in the CVR and FDR, one could deliberate on the likely causes that led to the disaster. There is a report from an observer on the ground that the aircraft was “flying low and hit a hillock before disintegrating and catching fire on a river bed”. While the observation may have been reported accurately, the aircraft possibly impacted the hill while on the way down engulfed in an emergency and tumbling out of control. Accidents occur primarily for three reasons, environmental factors such as bird hit, technical failure or human error. With the sketchy information currently available, it is not possible to conclusively attribute the tragedy to one of these. On the other hand, none can be ruled out either. Apart from the factors routinely considered during aircraft accident investigations, the Court of Inquiry must also examine the possibility even though remote, of the aircraft having been sabotaged before takeoff from Agra or shot down by anti-national elements.