Devastating disasters are as much part of the high-stakes space industry as are sweet successes. It will need considerable effort and many successful GSLV launches to get back on track. ISRO certainly has what it takes.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) suffered a significant setback on account of the unsuccessful April 15 mission of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV-D3). After a flawless lift-off from the Satish Dhavan Space Centre, Sriharikota, the crucial cryogenic upper stage failed, sending the rocket and its precious payload spinning out of control. Way back in 1992-1993, the US pressure succeeded in persuading Russia to renege on an agreement to transfer cryogenic technology to India. Instead, the Russians contracted to sell seven cryogenic upper stages. Five flights of the GSLV have already been powered by Russian cryogenic stages. But not satisfied with mere handouts, ISRO itself took up the challenge of acquiring the cutting-edge technology. The latest high profile GSLV mission showed that ISRO, in the face of a stringent technology denial regime, still has some way to go to master the art.

In cryogenic technology, super-cooled liquid fuels—generally hydrogen and oxygen—are mixed and ignited to power heavy rockets like the GSLV. Oxygen is a liquid below minus 183 degree celsius and hydrogen is below minus 253 degree celsius. Therefore, they have to be rapidly pumped into the rocket’s fuel tanks till seconds before lift off, using high speed turbo-pumps running at 40,000 revolutions per minute. The mix has to be perfect, or else, the rocket could explode. On both counts, advanced technological capabilities and complex ground support systems are essential.

A successful GSLV flight generally lasts just 1,022 seconds, after which its satellite payload is injected into geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO). From there, the satellite’s own propulsion system can take it safely to its permanent geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO), 35,786 km from the earth. After over 18 years of toil, 720 seconds (the duration of operation of the indigenous cryogenic upper stage) is all it needs to catapult India into an elite group—the US, Russia, European Space Agency, China and Japan—that have successfully harnessed this advanced technology. That wait just got a little longer.

Commercial Satellites and More

GSLV is currently ISRO’s heaviest launch vehicle, capable of injecting a payload of 2,500 kg into GTO. The April 15 launch was the maiden test of the indigenous cryogenic stage. ISRO will have to carefully analyse reams of mission data and understand the reasons for the failure. It is expected to make the next launch attempt in a year or so. GSLV Mk III, currently under development, will make ISRO capable of launching heavy satellites of the 4,500-5,000 kg class. Once it becomes operational in the next 2-3 years, it could slash the current $20,000 (Rs 897,160) per kg satellite launch cost to around half the figure. This would significantly bolster India’s efforts to muscle into the $4 billion (Rs 17,900 crore) global satellite launch services market.

Commercial satellite launches constitute a lucrative avenue for an aspiring space power to pursue. India already has 211 satellite transponders in orbit and ISRO aims to raise this to 500 by 2014. The current schedule of two or three satellite launches a year, would need to be increased to 6-8 missions a year, in order to meet this ambitious target. Telecom satellites operate in GEO—the most challenging orbit for launch vehicles. In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) circles in low earth orbit (LEO), a mere 330 km from earth.

ISRO has already created two major satellite constellations. The Indian National Satellite (INSAT) system consists of multipurpose geosynchronous satellites that satisfy the telecommunications, broadcasting, meteorology and search-and-rescue needs of India. It is the largest national communications system in the Asia-Pacific Region. The Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellite system, a series of earth observation satellites, forms the largest constellation of civilian remote sensing satellites anywhere in the world. By the end of next year, ISRO intends to launch the first satellite in a new constellation required for the ambitious Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) project. When the seven-satellite IRNSS becomes fully functional around 2014, it will be India’s answer to the US operated Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) System, as well as its European, Chinese and Russian versions and will make the country completely self-reliant in satellite navigation services.

Racing to the Moon

India: Telecommunications and navigation satellites, though vital, are not everything. Once the GSLV-D3 failure is overcome, India could aspire to human spaceflight capability as well. The largely successful Chandrayaan-1 unmanned lunar orbiter mission of 2008-09 spurred ISRO’s ambitions to make Indian astronauts walk the surface of the moon, perhaps in a decade from now. Chandrayaan-2 will be another unmanned lunar orbiter mission, for which a 2013 launch date is envisaged. The spacecraft will carry a lander and a rover that will separate from the mother ship and make a gentle descent to the moon’s surface, probably near a pole. The modules will then undertake onsite analyses and sample collection. By 2015-16, India could begin to write its human spaceflight chapter with the launch of a three-man capsule. This will enable ISRO to participate meaningfully in the ISS programme for which talks about India’s potential membership are expected later this year. More human spaceflights are likely, and, if all goes well, there will be an attempt to send an Indian astronaut to the lunar surface by around 2020. The series of moon missions pits India in direct competition with China. The developing high-stakes space race will attract considerable international publicity and raise the technological stature of both countries, especially if they successfully achieve a manned lunar landing.