The modern world is driven primarily by economy which in turn is dependant on transportation - air, land and maritime. The UN predicts that by 2050, two thirds of the world population will be living in the cities (ICAO, 2020). The efficiency of transportation will be the key to this change.

Aviation has been the fastest mode to grow at an exceptional pace. Only in 105 years, the aviation industry has reached the milestone of 100,000 plus commercial flights around the world every day. This growth has been the catalyst to the rapid globalization that we see today.

AVIATION MARKET IN INDIA

India is currently the ninth largest aviation market in the world with a passenger throughput of 344 million as of 2019. More than 85 international airlines operate to India and five Indian carriers connect over 40 countries. This sector contributes 2.4 per cent to the country’s GDP. India is considered to be one of the toughest aviation markets in the world, due to high fuel prices, overcapacity and intense price competition.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation is the nodal authority responsible for the formulation of national policies and programmers for development and regulation of the Indian civil aviation industry. Its functions also extend to overseeing airport facilities, air traffic services and carriage of passengers and goods by air. The Ministry deals with administrative control over affiliated and autonomous organisations like Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Bureau of Civil Aviation Security and Indira Gandhi National Flight Academy and allied PSUs like National Aviation Company of India Limited, Airports Authority of India and Pawan Hans Helicopters Limited.

Until The Air Corporation Act (ACA) 1994 allowed private carriers to operate scheduled airline services in India, Air India and Indian Airlines that were controlled by the Government of India, were the only two airlines operating in India. Jet Airways and Air Sahara started operations in 1994 and Air Deccan, the first low cost carrier (LCC), entered the domestic aviation industry in August 2003 after the liberalisation of airline industry. Since then, other LCCs such as SpiceJet, GoAir, IndiGo and Vistara airlines have entered the market. Full Service Airlines (FSA) like Kingfisher and Paramount commenced operations in 2005. The period following the introduction of the LCCs has been one of rapid growth for the Indian airline industry. Since the introduction of the LCC, the market share of legacy carriers such as Air India, Indian Airlines and Jet Airways has decreased substantially giving rise to fierce price wars amongst airlines. Despite these conditions however, three leading successful airlines have emerged in the recent past with consistently good performance and have demonstrated the potential for profitability in the Indian airline sector. IndiGo is well known for its sharp focus on key deliverables and has been the market leader. As per Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) IndiGo, SpiceJet and GoAir were expected to report profitability in FY 2020.

Although the air passenger numbers have grown, the sector is struggling, trying to keep pace with the changing dynamics in the wake of the pandemic.

IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS

The transportation sector, which is not an organised sector, employs over 40 million and contributes $200 billion plus to the economy as per India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF). This sector has been hit very badly by COVID-19 mainly because most of the industry players do not have any backup, recovery plan or intermittent operation plan. The sector is driven primarily by traditional approach of trucking and lacks modernised equipment to handle loading and unloading. This makes disinfecting the goods and supplies before delivery a near impossible task.

UNCTAD has said in its report that the economies of China and India would be least exposed to recession. However according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), overall unemployment shot up to 23.4 per cent in March due to the lockdown. Former finance ministry bureaucrat S.C. Garg says an estimated 100 million workers in mining, construction, manufacturing and service sectors have become jobless due to the lockdown and 136 million jobs are at risk in post-corona India. The tourism sector is likely to be affected very badly and this will affect the transportation industry too. Travel patterns of tourists are likely to see a major change in postcorona times.

IMPACT ON THE INDIAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY

Air India had suffered a net loss of 8,556 crore in the FY 18-19. Government’s attempt to privatise AI due to inability to lend any more funds now and the shutdown of Jet Airways in April 2019, have already put 25 per cent of the Indian airline industry under threat. Majority of the airlines are already going through their own problems. Most of the airlines are running without CEOs as 15 top executives have quit the industry. Market leader IndiGo had infighting between two of their major shareholders and its fleet of aircraft has been afflicted with technical problems. Jet Airways closure has made 20,000 of its employees jobless. GoAir has grounded 10 aircraft out of its fleet of 48 due to lack availability of network. Boeing 737 max aircraft were grounded after crashes of Ethiopian Airline and Lion Air aircraft. In effect, SpiceJet, which operates these aircraft is suffering.

However, many of these problems may be sorted out with new government initiatives. India being the second most populous country in the world, air traffic is bound to increase. At the end of 2019, the domestic air traffic in India recorded a growth of 3.74 per cent, closing the number of domestic passengers with 144 million as opposed to 138 million in 2018. Although the air passenger numbers have grown, the sector is struggling, trying to keep pace with the changing dynamics in the wake of the pandemic. International routes are going to suffer big losses because all the major international destinations in China, Middle East, South East Asia, Germany, US and UK are under the grip of the virus which would dent the earnings on these routes. Many of these countries/sectors are likely to be in the state of lockdown for a long time, maybe for entire 2020. Even when the air travel restarts, it is likely to be in a phased manner.

The stringent screening of outgoing as well as incoming passengers is likely to continue till the time pandemic is erased completely. CAPA estimates domestic traffic to decline from around 140 million in FY20 to 80 to 90 million in FY21. International traffic is expected to fall from approximately 70 million in FY20 to around 40 million in FY21. Overall, traffic is expected to decline by 50 to 60 per cent, but the impact will vary for each airport. Delhi airport passenger numbers are likely to drop to 33 million in 2022 from a high of 68 million last year.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The changed scenario is likely to put many constraints on the airline industry. Extension of the lockdown and a projected fall in air traffic would also force airport operators to recalibrate their expansion plans. Airports in Kerala may see a higher impact as a large per centage of their traffic is to West Asia. Joint venture airports like Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad will have difficulties in paying revenue share to Airport Authority of India (AAI) because the airlines too cannot pay rent until flights are allowed. They need to stay positive and negotiate with the regulatory bodies to begin their national and international operations early. Airport operators too are likely to ask for financial package from the government, including a tax holiday, moratorium on payments, deferral of concession fees and loans at attractive rates.

STEPS BY THE AIRLINES

Ensuring Hygienic Travel and Managing Traveler Sentiment. The airlines will have to add hygiene in the list of the critical deliverables like on-time performance, low fares, consistent onboard and ground service, lower marketing expenditure.

Customer Complaints to be Addressed Efficiently. Consistent onboard and ground service with facilities like rescheduling the ticket instead of cancelling or getting the refund for cancelled ticket in view of possibilities of cancellations due to health concerns, may be incorporated. This will ease the pressure uncertainty and promote advance booking of tickets.

Extension of the lockdown and a projected fall in air traffic would also force airport operators to recalibrate their expansion plans.

STEPS BY THE GOVERNMENT

Loan Repayment Support to the Airline Operators. Government should fund the ventures which are in distress. The loans should not be declared as NPAs and no collateral should be enforced for the current financial year. The timelines also need to be relaxed and the banks need to be instructed to not to levy any penalties for late payments.

Fair Pricing and Government Control on the Prices of ATF and other Supporting Tax Benefits. Fuel expenses account for approximately 40 per cent of the operating cost of airlines. ATF should be taxed at 10-12 per cent and brought under GST. VAT from state side on ATF should also be reduced from current 30 per cent to 10 per cent or below. This will enable the airlines to offer cheaper tickets and will help in attracting passengers. Ministry of Civil aviation has decided to waive off Fuel Throughput Charges (FTC) which was levied on fuel companies by airports across the country for the transportation of jet fuel to airline operators. Similar support is expected in Service Tax rate. Previously, Service Tax rate on air ticket after abatement was six per cent in case of economy class and nine per cent in case of business class. Whereas in GST, rate is five per cent with ITC in economy class and 12 per cent with ITC in business class, which results in an excess burden of three per cent in business class on air tickets, adversely affecting the growth of the industry. This has increased ticket prices which are impacting cash flow.

Import, Leasing, Repair and Maintenance Taxes. Under GST, there is an exemption on aircraft import via the leasing route. This move has bought big relief to the civil aviation industry by resolving the issue of double taxation. Under financing lease agreement of aircraft, Service Tax was chargeable only on 10 per cent of lease rental value meaning 90 per cent abetment. Under the operating lease agreement, previously, custom duty was not leviable. Considering the fact that leasing reduces the cost of airline operations, Revenue Department has now fixed the IGST levy as ‘nil’ on aircraft imported on lease. Initially under GST, cost of aircraft import under lease had increased as GST @ five per cent was chargeable. This is a welcome correction and should be continued. In the wake of weak aviation business in this year, the Finance Minister has cut the GST rate of MRO services from earlier 18 to five per cent to give relief to the MRO industry. These positive reforms have been welcomed by the industry and are recommended to be continued.

Promotion of Tourism in the Key States. In last few years states of Maharashtra, Kerala, Rajasthan and Goa have been getting a large number of tourists who prefer to travel by air. These numbers are likely to drop due to the apprehensions coming out from the current pandemic spread. This mindset is going to affect the traveler’s choice of mode of transportation and also the destinations. It will be in the interest of the Government and the entire transportation industry to promote tourism in the country and come up with packages in collaboration with the state tourism bodies and the hospitality sector. Tourism sector gave employment to 42.7 billion people in 2018-19.

Promotion of Enhanced Hygiene at the Airports and Tourist Destinations. Travelers should be provided with disposable gloves and mask at the entrance of the airport and it should be made mandatory within the airport premises. Similarly, at tourist locations, entry fee should include the cost of disposable mask and gloves. Separate dustbins maybe earmarked in public places to dispose of these.

Supporting the Labour Force Working in the Sector. The airline industry is labour-intensive and manpower costs are substantial. Cabin Crew, Aircraft Maintenance Engineers, and the other supporting staff are likely to face job cuts in the wake of the recession. Air India has suspended 200 pilots who were reemployed after retirement. It has also announced 10 per cent pay cut in allowances of the employees. Earlier, SpiceJet announced 10 to 30 per cent cut in the salary for March. IndiGo and GoAir have made similar moves. The employees may be given the option of three months unpaid leave which will effectively bring down the wage burden by 25 per cent. Similarly, Pilots too are likely to face the axe. The Government should intervene and ensure that the Indian Pilots and the crew are retained and if necessary, the expatriates should be laid off first. Another option for reducing cost maybe a four-day work week for roles where there is excess capacity. This can reduce the staff cost by nearly 20 per cent.

Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The increased screening at the airports is likely to create logjams and deteriorate the traveler’s experience. This will not be in the interest of an already affected aviation sector. Cognitive technologies like face recognition software and body scanners are increasingly being used world over. Similar AI projects maybe put in place to make the check-in process smoother and faster. Human capabilities can be augmented by AI thereby cutting down the time without compromising security.

The author is a Wing Commander posted to Indian Air Force Headquarters in New Delhi. He is a Research Scholar with 17 years of aviation experience with more than 3,000 flying hours. He is alumnus of the prestigious National Defence Academy and has done his MBA in International Trade Management from NMIMS, Mumbai and MA in Human Resource Management from Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi. Currently he is pursuing his PhD in Aviation Management from the University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun.