Analysis by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) clearly states that the impact of the outbreak of the pandemic COVID-19, is severely challenging the existence of the global air transport system as never before. While India is comparatively less hit as of now, but with the imposed lockdown, the Indian aviation industry is not far from the adverse impacts. According to IATA, before the outbreak, India‘s air transport industry’s economic contribution was estimated at $35 billion, supporting 6.2 million jobs and contributing 1.5 per cent to GDP in India. However, COVID-19 has led to the destruction of air travel demand on an unprecedented scale. India’s scheduled carriers are currently in grave and immediate danger of insolvency, states IATA. A cessation of operations would trigger a host of serious consequences. The contribution that the airline industry makes to the economy of India is sure to be wiped out if the airline industry collapses. At stake is not merely the survival of the airlines and related industries, but whether a safe, efficient and viable commercial aviation system will be available to contribute to the post-COVID-19 restoration and recovery of trade, travel, and indeed the economy of India itself, points out IATA.

While airlines are trying their best to adopt every measure possible to mitigate the impact by cutting avoidable costs, the reality is that airlines have substantial fixed costs which cannot be reduced by cutting capacity - salaries need to be paid as do aircraft financing arrangements and other fixed costs. In recent weeks, airlines have been paying out more by way of refunds than they have received in new booking revenues, meaning that their reserves are rapidly depleting. Airlines risk running out of cash in the very near future.

The situation that is in front of all of us is not completely in our hands as lockdowns are the most viable solutions for COVID-19. Hence the airlines have also been shut.

India is currently under lockdown till May 04, 2020, and the situation beyond that remain uncertain too.

“The current lockdown on both domestic and international passenger flights is till May 04, 2020. A decision to restart the flights after this period remains to be taken. If required, we will have to assess the situation on a case by case basis,” Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of Civil Aviation of India, said.

Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) estimates that many carriers are likely to go bankrupt by the end of May if they cannot find support and further predicted that about half of all global airlines could go out of business before the end of the year. Bloomberg, determined that among airlines that are in danger of going under are Pakistan International Airlines, SpiceJet, Norwegian, American Airlines, SkyWest, Air Asia, Asiana Airlines, Virgin Australia, Korean Air, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines.

FREIGHTERS FOR THE FIGHT

However, the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) permitted airlines to carry cargo in passenger cabin placed on seats, apart from the aircraft belly, so as to accommodate more freight in view of the lockdown and also to manage cost-efficient operations.

“Operations without passengers and with cargo in the passenger compartment will require suitable number of crew members/personnel to survey and access all areas of the cabin during all phases of flight,” stated the DGCA advisory. In line with this, various flights by now have been operated during lockdown period by Air India, Alliance Air, Indian Air Force (IAF), Pawan Hans, IndiGo and SpiceJet.

The IAF has also airlifted over 25 tonnes of medical supplies from Delhi, Surat, and Chandigarh to Manipur, Nagaland and the Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh, a statement said. The IAF’s C-17, C-130, An-32, AVRO and Dornier aircraft are being used for the assistance.

The medical supplies include Personal Protective Equipment, hand sanitizers, surgical gloves, thermal scanners and medical personnel.

Other carriers across the world such as Lufthansa, Delta, United and Etihad have also began “passenger freighter” services to aid in earning revenue at a time when passenger demand is falling sharply.

According to IATA, before COVID-19, contribution of India‘s air transport industry was estimated at $35 billion, supporting 6.2 million jobs and contributing 1.5 per cent to GDP

The Minister of Civil Aviation also tweeted, “Stakeholders of our aviation sector are at the forefront of India’s efforts to contain and prevent the spread of Coronavirus. Domestic airlines and cargo operators along with the IAF have so far transported 15.4 tonnes of medical supplies on 62 special flights between March 26 and 30 this year.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation also launched “Lifeline Udan” flights for movement of medical and essential supplies across the country and beyond. A total of 74 flights have been operated as of April 1, 2020, for transporting medical cargo across the country.

As of April 05, cargo hubs created at Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Kolkata and Chennai have been feeding to spokes at Guwahati, Dibrugarh, Agartala, Aizwal, Dimapur, Imphal, Coimbatore, Thiruvananthapuram, Bhubaneswar, Raipur, Ranchi, Srinagar, Port Blair and Goa, as tweeted by Puri.

Till April 05, the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) and stakeholders have operated a total of 116 flights to transport over 160 tonnes of essential medical equipment and cargo to various corners of the country.

Even while times get tough and the commercial airlines’ business is almost at halt, all carriers of the Indian aviation industry have come forward to transport urgently required cargo. Air India led the mission operating charter flights to move cargo within the country, carrying medical equipments and other essential items.

Domestic cargo operators Blue Dart and Spicejet have also been reported as operating cargo flights on a commercial basis.

Air India had reportedly been operating cargo flights at cost. While it has moved cargo for state governments as well as PSUs transporting essential items to far-flung places in the North East and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the national carrier has also operated special flights to China, Germany, Iran, Israel and is expected to operate more flights to the US, UK and Canada.

As of April 03, Mission Lifeline UDAN had transported almost 20 tonnes of vital medical equipment to various corners of the country with the help of 10 flights by Air India and the IAF.

IndiGo’s relief flight, 6E-9121, operated from Delhi to Jodhpur carrying 139 Indians, who were evacuated from Iran. On April 4, IndiGo operated its first cargo flight from Kolkata to Agartala via Imphal bringing essential medical supplies weighing 1,551 kg.

As of April 04, SpiceJet had operated 109 domestic cargo flights beginning March 24, covering a distance of 1,14,993 km to carry 825 tonnes cargo, while carried 2.33 tonnes of cargo across 4,871 km on five flights on March 03. As of April 04, Blue Dart had operated 48 domestic cargo flights covering a distance of 45,783 km carrying 702.43 tonnes of cargo between 25 March 25 and April 03, 2020.

MoCA stated on April 4 that so far, 109 flights-covering a distance of over 1,00,000 km hade been operated under Mission Lifeline UDAN to help the nation fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONTRIBUTION BY SPICEJET

SpiceJet also decided to put its cargo fleet to optimum use to ensure that supply chain remains intact. The airline has been working closely with state governments to ensure supplies of essential items, medicines, medical equipment and relief material.

As of March 27, the airline reported that its fleet of five dedicated freighters are crisscrossing the country daily and flying to nearby countries including to those in the Middle-East, South-East Asia, among other places with fresh fruits and vegetables, cold chain medical supplies, medicines, medical devices for various state governments, medical and pharma companies, international retailers and farmer bodies in this joint war against COVID-19. The pilots, engineers, loaders, security personnel operating and assisting these cargo flight operations are continuously working in these unprecedented times.

SpiceJet’s dedicated cargo arm, SpiceXpress, has been doing doorstep deliveries of essential supplies, medicines and medical equipment in Bengaluru, Patna, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Raipur, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Visakhapatnam, Srinagar, Thiruvananthapuram, Vadodara, Kochi, Guwahati, Jammu, Lucknow among other cities.

SpiceJet has also been operating special cargo flights since early March to ferry vital supplies in the fight against coronavirus. SpiceJet also reported helping transport an emergency consignment of IR Thermometres, required to detect COVID-19, to Kolkata from Hong Kong and was to operate more flights. Special cargo flights have also been operated to Gujarat and other states too.

“SpiceJet operated a special charter flight from Delhi to Coimbatore on March 27 on Government’s request. This flight was operated at a very short notice and carried a Hazmat suit. This will help local authorities replicate and start local manufacturing. SpiceJet has offered our aircraft and crew for any humanitarian mission that the government needs us to fly,” said Ajay Singh, Chairman and Managing Director, SpiceJet.

He also added that they are already flying food, medicines and medical equipment for the government every day. “We would love to alleviate the suffering of these migrant workers especially those from Bihar by flying some flights between Delhi/Mumbai and Patna.”

Special cargo flights were even operated by SpiceJet to Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and other countries taking fresh fruits and vegetables and helping Indian farmers maintain continuity of their supply chains.

Dedicated freighter services from Chennai and Vishakhapatnam to Surat and Kolkata are in constant operations to help India’s shrimp farmers. Till now, shrimp hatcheries used to face a lot of problems in transporting seeds in the absence of dedicated flights leading to a high mortality rate of shrimp seeds which in turn led to heavy losses.

AIR INDIA CREW AFFECTED

Unfortunately, one of Air India’s cabin crew was recently tested positive. She had reportedly operated one of the evacuation flights between Mumbai and Newark in the United States. Post this, Air India’s cargo handling subsidiary - AI Airport Services (AI APS), had asked 14 of its employees to go into home quarantine. This has led to Air India pilots involved in rescue missions for stranded Indians and those operating chartered flights to rescue foreign nationals amid the coronavirus outbreak raising concerns over safety.

While airlines are trying their best to mitigate the impact by cutting avoidable costs, the reality is that airlines have substantial fixed costs which cannot be reduced by cutting capacity

Despite this, the cargo operations continue and in fact, talks are also on regarding operations of cargo flights to China to get medical supplies. “We got the approval for launching the freighter operations to Shanghai from Delhi for two dates - April 04 and 05. We have applied for subsequent dates also and we hope to get those approvals also within a day,” said Air India chief, Rajiv Bansal during a press conference. He said Air India has also got the approval for carrying cargo flight operations to Hong Kong.

Air India is also scheduled to operate 18 charter flights to fly back German, French, Irish and Canadian nationals stranded in India during the lockdown as requested by the embassies.

Amid all this and more, some airlines have also announced cutoffs in pay while trying to deny any risk to the jobs even though employees are constantly worried about the same.

INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO DEMAND FLUCTUATIONS

It might be expected that the cargo industry would be doing fine in such times as they are in demand for constant transportation of medical supplies, and other necessities. That was witnessed also in many parts of the world. However, the restrictions and the risk involved have even affected the cargo sector. IATA released February 2020 data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in cargo tonne kilometres (CTKs*), decreased by 1.4 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. By February, the negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis on air cargo demand was becoming visible.

Some of the significant developments witnessed in the month of March include:

• Widespread factory closures and travel restrictions lead to a sharp drop in the manufacturing production in China, one of the world’s largest air cargo markets.
• Global export orders fell to a historically low level. The global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is in contraction territory, with all major trading nations reporting falling orders.
• As a result of airlines reducing passenger operations in response to government travel restrictions due to COVID-19, severely impacting global supply chains and causing significant cargo capacity lost.
• Cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometers (ACTKs), dropped by 4.4 per cent year-on-year in February 2020. This is subject to the same distortions as the non-seasonally adjusted demand numbers.

A sizeable decline was also suffered by the airlines in Europe in year-on-year growth in total air cargo volumes in February 2020, while North American and Asia-Pacific carriers experienced more moderate falls. Middle East, Latin America and Africa were the only regions to record growth in air freight demand compared to February 2019.

“I have been pleased to note that several States have implemented measures to prevent disruptions to such critical operations, by maintaining all cargo flights and excluding crew members of cargo flights from quarantine,” noted Dr Fang Liu, Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). “There is an urgent need to ensure the sustainability of the global air cargo supply chain and to maintain the availability of critical medications and equipment such as ventilators, masks, and other health and hygiene items which will help reduce the spread of COVID-19.”