Regional airlines that enter the field from now on should know that pressures to reduce emissions are likely to intensify as the years pass. A prime consideration, therefore, should be to buy fuel-efficient aircraft.

Following last year’s unremarkable summit at Copenhagen, hopes of a legally binding climate change treaty emerging at Cancun, Mexico in December are fast fading. The climate denial lobby is baying for blood, picking hole after hole in the 2007 Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The so-called fabrications amount to a minuscule portion of thousands of pages of text and none of them call into question the fundamental premise of human-induced climate change. Yet, a sense of gathering gloom has gripped the greens.

Climate change science is indeed contentious. Powerful vested interests—most notably the oil marketing companies—are keen to continue with business as usual. But the basic assertion that growing greenhouse gases are the root cause of global warming is sound. And the planet is likely to pay a heavy price unless emissions are curbed drastically, and quickly.

Aviation currently makes a relatively small contribution to global warming. However, it is among the fastest growing sources of emissions. Each year, the industry improves fuel efficiency by 1.5 to 2 per cent. And each year, aviation grows by 4 to 5 per cent, overwhelming these gains. That is why green activists have commercial aviation squarely in their crosshairs. Last year, a British MP called for a total ban on all domestic flights within the UK. Together with groups like Plane Stupid (which uses shock tactics to force people to fly less, especially over short distances) he could symbolise the thin edge of the wedge of public opinion that short-haul and regional flights need to be severely constrained. Where does that leave regional airlines?

Keep It Green

The Indian government introduced a new regional aviation policy in August 2007. It was hoped that airline start-ups would be eager to link small cities and towns in the country’s vast hinterland, complementing the long-distance operations of the national carriers (“Time to Make Hay”, SP’s Aviation, February 2010). But the initial flurry of activity quickly petered out, perhaps due to the economic turmoil of the last year or two. However, another key reason could be that potential regional airlines feel, with some justification, that they have little hope of competing against the established carriers. The government’s route dispersal guidelines mean that national airlines must deploy a specified percentage of their capacity on certain less-frequented routes. As a result, air connectivity has reached many underdeveloped regions. But it has also meant excess capacity on such sectors. A gradual withdrawal of the route dispersal regime would enable regional airlines to operate smaller aircraft more efficiently in the space vacated by the national carriers.

There are stray signs that regional aviation could begin to pick up in the coming months. In the north, MDLR Airlines is reportedly considering resuming operations with its 70-seat Avro 146-RJ70 aircraft, suspended since October. In the south, Star Aviation, which has reportedly taken delivery of two out of seven Embraer E170 regional jets on order, is on the lookout for a buyer able to launch operations by its June deadline. And Jagson Airlines’ much-anticipated commencement as a regional carrier, also in the North, may soon take place. A few other start-ups lurk in the wings, awaiting an opportune moment to make their grand entry. The recent upsurge in the number of air passengers in the country should provide them some welcome encouragement.

India has made a non-binding commitment to reduce its 2005 carbon intensity 20 to 25 per cent by 2020. Indian commercial aviation logged 20 per cent average annual growth between 2003-04 and 2008-09. During this period, the yearly consumption of fuel also grew from 2.5 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes, representing a near-doubling of CO2 emissions. Since the country has one of the least penetrated aviation markets of the major economies, and among the highest rates of economic growth, it is a no-brainer that aviation related emissions will increase exponentially in years to come. If the country is indeed serious about its green goals, every sector of the economy will have to pitch in. That includes regional airlines. The slow progress of regional aviation thus far could, therefore, provide an opportunity to re-jig the policy and take ecological concerns on board.

Regional airlines that enter the field from now on should know that pressures to reduce emissions are likely to intensify as the years pass. Planes don’t come cheap and hasty decisions made today could continue to haunt the airlines for 25 to 30 years—the period they need to keep aircraft in service to get returns on their investment. A prime consideration, therefore, should be to buy fuel-efficient aircraft.