What the IAF needs to ask itself is whether the pace of transformation is fast enough for it to not only catch up with the existing and emerging challenges, but also to keep its tryst to be a world class aerospace power in the foreseeable future

Nudged by the first ever formal doctrine in the mid-1990s, winds of change had started to blow away dogmatic cobwebs from the minds of most of the Indian Air Force (IAF) leadership—of the IAF being merely a subcontinental tactical air force. The dawn of the new millennium began to witness the IAF eagerly aspiring to transform itself into a true strategic, intercontinental and dominant aerospace power with regional and extra-regional capabilities, in sync with India’s changing geopolitical and geostrategic scenarios.

The IAF celebrated its platinum jubilee in 2007. On the occasion of the Air Force Day parade, IAF’s evolving thought process was eloquently iterated by the then Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal F.H. Major who said, “The emerging geopolitical and security scenario requires our nation to possess comprehensive military capability, characterised by flexibility and speed of response, the mobility and transportability of all forms of national power, long-reach, precision targeting, minimum fuss, collateral damage and reduced visibility. Aerospace power fits the bill perfectly. And the 21st century promises to belong to it for its ready applicability in all situations. Given the Indian situation, our concerns and aspirations, a strong and comprehensive aerospace capability is inescapable. India requires it in all its capabilities.” A year later, speaking from the same podium about the new challenges and opportunities, he reaffirmed that the IAF passing through a state of transformation was heading for exciting times with a variety of aircraft, sensors, weapons and communication systems and infrastructural improvements in the pipeline. But was Air Chief Marshal Major being too optimistic in his statements/predictions? Since the IAF’s platinum jubilee in 2007, four years have elapsed. While some inductions of aerial platforms and infrastructural improvements have indeed taken place during this period, these can at best be described as the tip of the proverbial iceberg, as in almost all areas of its combat capabilities, IAF continues to battle with obsolescence.

A few days from now, on October 8, the IAF would be celebrating its 79th anniversary; where it would be taking stock of its achievements—probably even indulge in back-patting itself. Conceding that the IAF is in the midst of a profound transformation, a little self-praise on its part is not only acceptable but may even be desirable as it has a salutary effect on the rank and file of the service. But what the IAF needs to ask of itself is whether the pace of transformation is fast enough for it to not only catch up with the existing and emerging challenges, but also to keep its tryst of being a world class aerospace power in the foreseeable future?

Any appreciation of the direction to be taken to create future capabilities for the IAF must rest on its role in the overall national defence, including likely capabilities of countries whose air/aerospace powers could impinge on Indian security—most importantly—China and Pakistan. China’s military modernisation progressing purposefully for more than two decades now is steadily shifting the military balance in its favour. It is not only the Soviet/Russian military technology which provided the leap forward; the Chinese aerospace scientists themselves are carving big successes in indigenous design and development. The J-10 and the latest J-20 fifth generation stealth combat jet fighters amply prove the point. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) of China is rapidly progressing to be essentially a fourth generation plus combat force, fielding as many as 1,500 frontline fighter aircraft, supported by a plethora of force-multipliers such as airborne warning and control systems (AWACS), aerial refuelling systems, modern air defence systems, space-based command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) infrastructure and a large variety of ballistic and cruise missiles in offensive roles. Riding on the status of a ‘frontline state’ and a partner in the global war on terror (GWOT), the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has continued to reap a rich harvest in terms of military grants from the US. Pakistan has also made copious use of its ‘special’ relationship with China to procure the state-of-the-art fourth generation fighters for the PAF in large numbers. Out of these, JF-17 Thunder is being produced indigenously, with the PAF already having received around 34 aircraft. Eventually, the PAF is looking at inducting 250-300 aircraft into service. In addition, it has placed an initial order for 36 J-10 (FC-20) out of a total order of estimated 150 aircraft to be acquired from China. Its present holding of around 65 F-16 upgraded and new aircraft could finally swell up to 100 aircraft, if it continues to receive the US military largesse. By 2020, the PAF is estimated to have 500-550 modern fighters alone. On the other hand, its ballistic and cruise missiles programmes are also moving forward with added momentum, once again thanks to its all-weather friend China, and North Korea.