The Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) while delivering the inaugural address at the 19th Subroto Mukherjee seminar, on December 23, 2022 mentioned that our neighbourhood continues to remain “volatile and uncertain” and amidst this volatility, we must enhance our collective strength by partnering with nations which share common beliefs and values.

The CAS further said, “The IAF needs to evolve into an aerospace power and to do so, there is a need to develop the capability to fight and win tomorrow’s wars. Multi-domain operations and hybrid warfare are here to stay and we must, therefore, realign and reform to keep pace with technology to remain relevant. There are certain critical deficiencies like shortage of fighter squadrons and force multipliers which must be addressed on priority to retain our combat edge.”

The CAS statement comes at a time when serious showdown with China in Ladakh continues since May 2020 with no solution in sight. Fresh tensions between India and China following a clash in the Tawang sector on December 9 further vitiate the atmosphere between two neighbouring Asian giants.

The immediate short term worry for the IAF is shortage of fighter jets. IAF currently has a strength of 31 fighter squadrons, as against the sanctioned 42. The number has fallen as some of the squadrons have been phased out in last few years, likely to go down further when the MiG-21 Bison, Jaguar and MiG-29 squadrons are phased out. The induction plan involves 83 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk 1A, 6 to 10 squadrons of LCA Mk II, seven squadrons of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). Indigenous fighter jet programme apart, the IAF is also working on procurement of six squadrons of 114 Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA). What is a matter of concern is that even if the procurement plans goes as per schedule, the IAF will have only around 35 to 36 squadrons by the middle of next decade.

Deficiency also exists in the Force Multipliers. Force-Multipliers are important for any Air Force for gaining air superiority. An Air Force must have the capability to assemble a potent offensive or defensive package at the points of decision in time and space to achieve its strategic goals. These force multiplier aircraft play a pivotal role in providing an asymmetric advantage at operational, strategic and tactical levels of war.

Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and Flight Refueling aircraft (FRA) falls in the category of force Multipliers. To handle a two war front, the IAF needs 18 AWACS platforms and at least six more FRA.

IAF however has only three Netra AEW&C (developed on Embraer EMB 145) and three AWACS developed on IL-76 platform with EL/W-2090 Phalcon radar by Israel Aerospace. On September 2021 the Cabinet Committee’s Security has cleared 11,000 crore projects for DRDO to develop six new AEW&C systems on the six old A320 aircraft bought from Air India. These are presently undergoing refurbishment by Airbus, Spain. Once they arrive they will have to be fitted with DRDO developed electronic mission equipment, followed by various integration qualification, testing and evaluation to be certified as flight worthy. In the best case scenario, the whole process would take at least six to eight years.

The next Force multiplier, FRA extends the fighter aircraft range of operation, thereby making strategic targets accessible. The IAF is currently operating six IL-78 aircraft, inducted in 2003. The aircraft serviceability is known to be under 50 per cent.

To address the FRA shortfall, the IAF has been trying to acquire six mid-air refuellers since 2007 with no success due to issues related to Life Cycle Costs and processes. IAF has now embarked on its long term solution to acquire at least six FRAs that will have reduced maintenance related down time and low operating cost. The Airbus A330 MRTT, the IL-78 and the Boeing KC-46A seem to be contenders. Besides, under its short term plan, IAF is also seeking reliable partners for leasing at least two to three FRAs from the West.

Media sources have reported that China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has nearly 80 combat squadrons. China is investing heavily into aerospace Research and Development and continues to modernise its fleet with indigenously built aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. They claim to have nearly 50 J-20 (fifth generation fighter) already operational and have plans to have 200 by 2027. Other modern fighters include 24 Su-35 and more than 500 J-10s.

China has been bolstering its air power by adding new infrastructure at its air bases in Tibet region. The IAF has been operationally forced to scramble its fighter aircraft to counter PLAAF air violations close to LAC.

The growing imbalance vis-à-vis China is very evident. The issue of bridging the yawning gap in capability must be addressed on priority so that the IAF retains its combat edge. In view of the above, the Government needs to expedite inductions and take up urgent procurement to mitigate the critical shortages of fighter aircraft and force multipliers.