The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) believes that Indian aviation could see transformational growth over the next decade

India’s affair with regional aviation may finally be ready for take-off. Impressive long-term economic growth (despite the current temporary turbulence) and rising wages in places far removed from the major cities mean that millions of people are being lifted out of poverty to middleclass status. This explains why the growth in per capita monthly consumption in rural India during the period 2009-10 to 2011-12, outpaced the consumption by urban dwellers for the first time since economic reforms were launched 20 years ago. By 2030, the country is likely to have 55 cities with a population exceeding one million, with soaring aspirations for comfortable travel. Therefore, it’s only a question of time before the demand for air services from faraway places explodes.

The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) believes that Indian aviation could see transformational growth over the next decade. It projects that total airport passenger traffic may triple from approximately 143 million in 2010-11 to 450 million by 2020-21, making India the third largest aviation market in the world, behind only the US and China. Over the same period, the scheduled airline fleet is expected to swell from 430 to 1,030 aircraft.

This huge increase in aircraft is likely to have one important characteristic. The number of small planes, at present insignificant, is bound to rise. Currently, just 36 of the 87 operational airports in the country can take even the airline industry’s workhorses—the Airbus A320 and Boeing B737 narrow-body aircraft. Although dozens of Greenfield airports are in the pipeline, land acquisition issues are making their progress excruciatingly slow. In the meantime, the Airports Authority of India (AAI) is striving to reclaim out-of-use airfields in out-ofthe-way places as a means to quickly increase the number of functional airports. However, most of these are likely to have short runways. Besides, passenger demand from new and remote airports may be insufficient to support large airliners, at least to begin with. For these reasons, there’s no getting around the need for small planes.

Small and Sleek

Air charter company Religáre Voyages Ltd has seen the writing on the wall. In July, when it launched Air Mantra, the lone regional airline to start flying in the last five years, it converted two of its existing 17-seat Beechcraft 1900D aircraft for the purpose. The Beechcraft 1900, a twin-engine turboprop manufactured by Hawker Beechcraft, has been employed as a regional airliner, cargo carrier and corporate aircraft from 1984 onwards. The 1900D is a substantial improvement and is its most popular version.

If the Beechcraft 1900D (currently India’s smallest commercial plane) seems small, Deccan Shuttles is going even smaller. In August, this non-scheduled regional carrier, which has strong scheduled airline intentions, launched intra-state operations in Gujarat using two nine-seat Cessna 208B Grand Caravan turboprops. The Cessna 208B is a single-engine short-haul regional airliner and utility aircraft, with fixed landing gear, built by Cessna. It was introduced in service in 1984.

Turbocharged Travel

However, the mainline carriers, for long the only operators of regional flights in the country, prefer standard-size turboprops like the 80-seat Bombardier Q400 NextGen and the ATR 72-500 (maximum 78 seats). Low-cost carrier SpiceJet, currently a key regional player, believes that the Bombardier Q400 makes good sense for short-haul routes and has already acquired 12 aircraft. This economical and fuel-efficient plane is suited to the facilities at many small Indian airports, short runways and basic services. Jet Airways also operates 20 ATR 72-500 aircraft, many on regional routes. Kingfisher Airlines’ once sizeable fleet of ATR 72-500s, however, has shrunk to just five planes. In India, aircraft with up to 80 seats are exempt from airport landing and parking charges and billed at reduced rates for navigation facilities. Aircraft with take-off weight less than 40,000 kg also pay just four per cent sales tax on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) across the country, whereas larger planes are charged up to 30 per cent in some states. The Q400 and ATR 72-500 both meet the requirements for concessional billing.

Turboprop aircraft are also growing in popularity worldwide as the most cost-effective method of penetrating shorthaul markets, especially in an era of rising oil prices. These rugged planes constituted just 15 per cent of the global regional fleet in 2001 but are now 40 per cent or more. And demand for turboprops is expected to continue rising since average oil prices are projected to increase by $20 per barrel again within a year. Consequently, Bombardier Aerospace now anticipates a requirement for about 2,832 turboprops over the next 20 years, representing 48 per cent of the overall market for 60- to 99-seat aircraft. It also believes that there could be many customers for large turboprop aircraft of 90- to 99-seat capacity and is mulling over its options in this category.

Jetting to a Competitive Future

On the global stage, unlike in India, the trend is clearly towards larger regional aircraft. The main reason is fuel economy. Regional jets are getting bigger and faster; their range is increasing, and they are becoming more comfortable.

Till now, the Bombardier CRJ series (of which the 86- to 104-seat CRJ1000 is the latest variant) and the Embraer EJet family (of which the 106- to 122-seat E-195 is the latest and largest) have dominated the global scene. In fact, the two manufacturers are the only noteworthy producers of regional jets and have pretty much succeeded in carving up the market between them. But a clutch of new regional jets may spoil their fun.

In April last year, the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ100-95 (maximum 103 seats), entered commercial service with Armavia and it is now also flying with Aeroflot. However, an unfortunate accident during a demonstration flight in Indonesia on May 9 that took the lives of 45 people has dented its popularity to some extent.

Among the earliest of the forthcoming launches (although currently running five years behind schedule) could be the twin-engine Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng (“Soaring Phoenix”). It will be the first passenger jet to be developed and indigenously produced in China. China is working feverishly to open new airports in small cities, thus greatly expanding its potential demand for regional jets. The ARJ21 is fitted with specially developed General Electric CF34-10A engines that give it powerful take-off and climb performance, permitting the use of basic airports with short runways. While the ARJ21-700 baseline model will have a capacity of 70-95 seats, the ARJ21-900 stretched version will take 95-105 passengers. Comac claims to have secured over 300 orders till date, and is targeting an end-2013 first delivery to launch customer Chengdu Airlines.