India has not been an aggressor against any country nor does it have any expansionist designs. However whenever its territorial integrity has been threatened, its armed forces have reacted with professional competence. Given the current economic environment in India and the region, war seems to be a remote possibility. The exception to this is Pakistan whose identity appears to be based on anti-Indianism. The relations between India and China have improved over the years but border issues are yet to be resolved. China is a patient country with a long memory and Deng Xiao Ping with the usual Chinese farsightedness stated in 1986 that it would perhaps be better if the Sino-Indian border problem was left to be solved by future generations. Much can be read into this statement. Later, in early 1990s, Deng expounded his ‘24-Character Strategy’:“Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile and never claim leadership.” Later the phrase, “make some contribution” was added.

The strategy suggests both a short-term desire to downplay China’s ambitions and a long-term strategy to build up China’s power to maximise options in the future. There is an ominous ring to this 24-Character Strategy and India would do well to take heed, even though China may have articulated the strategy with the superior power of the United States in its sights.

Developing friendly relations with China does not mean that India can discount them as strategic rivals. Development of relations must go hand-in-hand with enhancing military capabilities. While this process has a long gestation period, the intentions of a country can change overnight. One cannot forecast as to when China with vastly greater capability will decide to reclaim disputed territories. When that happens, India will have to fight with whatever capability it possesses at that time. While the two countries have been holding regular meetings to resolve the vexing border issues, nothing substantial has been achieved. President Xi Jinping’s visit to India may result in a breakthrough.

Situation in the Neighbourhood

Pakistan is entirely a different kettle of fish. Beset by internal political problems, its policy trajectories decided by the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), under serious threat from fundamentalist organisations created by itself, with an unstable border on its West and an economy sustained mainly by dole from the United States and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan totters on the brink. This nuclear power’s identity is an anti-India stance which is unlikely to change. One anchor it has is the ‘all-weather’ friendship with China. China has armed and helped Pakistan to counter-balance India in South Asia. Differences over Kashmir continue to fester and the IB and LC remain volatile.

China is embarked on a time-bound military modernisation planmodernisation that has taken it far ahead of India. It has the largest standing army in the world and its air force and navy have accelerated re-equipment plans. China has a strong indigenous military industrial complex. It has transformed itself from an arms importing nation to one that can export state-of-the-art military hardware. It has an annual defence budget of over $120 billion. It has conducted exercises to demonstrate mass transfer of military personnel and equipment over vast distances from one region to another.

The PLAAF

In 1999, the People’s Liiberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) operated over 3,500 combat aircraft comprising the J-6 (MiG-19 equivalent) and the J-7 (Chinese version of the MiG-21). A deal with Russia saw the induction of 100 Su-27 fighters. PLAAF also had in its inventory the H-6 (Chinese version of the Tu-16 Badger) bombers. China had no precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and only the Su-27 was BVR compatible.

China’s astounding economic growth has accelerated the modernisation momentum and the 21st century has witnessed the acquisition of 105 Su-30MKK from 2000 to 2003 and 100 upgraded Su-30MKK2 in 2004. China produced more than 200 J-11s from 2002 onwards. The PLAAF also bought a total of 126 Su-27SK/UBK. The production of J-10 fighter began in 2002 and 1,200 are on order. The H-6 bombers were converted into flight refuelling aircraft. In 2005 the PLAAF unveiled plans to acquire 70 Il-76 transport aircraft and 30 Il-78 tankers to significantly upgrade strategic airlift capability and offer extended range to the fighter force. The US Department of Defense has reported that Su-27SKs are being upgraded to the multi-role Su-27SMK status. The PLAAF is also organising a combat air wing for a future aircraft carrier group, possibly based on the Su-33, a carrier-capable variant of the Su-27. Many existing fighters are being upgraded, some for night maritime strike role, permitting carriage of Russian weapons, including Kh-31A anti-radiation cruise missile and KAB-500 laser-guided munitions.

China is also developing special mission aircraft including the KJ-2000 AWACS based on Il-76 platform. The Y-8 transport planes are being modified to undertake a variety of roles of Airborne Battlefield Command, AEW and intelligence gathering. PLAAF’s aim is to have a fourth-generation air force. JH-7/7A will be the backbone of the precision strike force with large numbers of J-10 and J-11 in the air superiority role. The interceptor role will be undertaken by the JF-17 which is currently under production. The transport force will have Il-76, Il-78 and Y-9 aircraft. China has a variety of helicopters and other aircraft to undertake specialist missions and routine tasks. With a fast developing command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) and its shift to joint operations, the Chinese military will be a formidable force to reckon with even for a well prepared adversary. In this process of modernisation, the PLAAF has improved exponentially, though it has yet to be tested in war.

Recently China unveiled its fifth-generation fighter—the J-20 which represents a big step in the evolution of the Chinese aerospace industry as a whole. The new aircraft displays stealth features and indicates a determination on China’s part to shape new military capabilities in the period ahead. China is determined to develop modern military aerospace capabilities. Having built up expertise in the field, including learning from the designers, technicians and scientists imported from CIS countries where they had been rendered unemployed post the break-up of the Soviet Union, China invested significantly in the aerospace sector and the benefits are visible now. The progress has been much faster than predicted by western analysts. The phenomenal growth in its economy permits China’s increased investments in innovation and the result would be that by 2020 or so China will become the world’s most important centre for innovation, bypassing current leaders, the United States and Japan. In recent times China has been flexing its muscle and become more assertive in the South China Sea region.

Pakistan Air Force

Pakistan’s army controls its own budget and the civilian government has very little power of veto to what the military wishes to acquire. With material help from China and financial assistance from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has been able to create a fairly potent military. The United States also gives billions of dollars to Pakistan in the ‘fight against terrorism’ despite knowing that this donation only fuels terrorism further. This inexplicable blind spot in the US foreign policy has continued for many years. Pakistan has received F-16 C/D Block 50/52 aircraft from the US. The total number of F-16s with PAF will eventually go up to 100. The United States has also delivered BVR missiles to the PAF, neutralising an advantage held by the IAF for long. China and Pakistan have jointly manufactured the JF-17 Thunder combat aircraft. . This will replace all older types in the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) with a total of nearly 250 to be manufactured in Pakistan. The PAF has also contracted for four Saab-2000 AEW aircraft apart from the four Y-8 it will receive from China. All this indicates that any advantage that the Indian Air Force (IAF) has had is slowly being whittled away.

State of the IAF

In comparison to China or Pakistan, the Indian armed forces are getting a rough deal from the government. Despite the pronouncements of “we will defend every inch of our territory” and “our forces will get what they want,” the actual story is quite different. The past few years have witnessed a Raksha Mantri so obsessed with maintaining his so-called ‘squeaky clean’ image, that even a whisper of alleged taint have resulted in cancellation of contracts for weapon system with foreign vendors. That the modernisation process of the Indian armed forces and military preparedness of the nation are severely affected due to such cancellations, did not deter him from his crusade. It did not matter that some of the allegations of corruption were insinuated by vendors who had been eliminated from the race for the contract. The series of scams that dogged the previous dispensation led to policy paralysis with resultant adverse impact on national security. A case in point is the induction of 126 MMRCA for the IAF. A presentation for this requirement was given to the then Minister of Defence by this author in year 2001. Though Rafale has been selected after a painfully long delay in the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) according its approval and a lengthy evaluation process, finalisation of the deal is held up for reasons not fully known. To add to India’s woes is the near complete failure of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) to deliver on its promises. The recent change of government and the partial opening up of the defence sector to private players augurs well for the Indian military. The Tejas LCA is a non-starter in its present configuration, good only for fly-pasts and demonstrations. LCA’s newer version is yet to materialise. MiG-21M aircraft will be phased out in 2015 and the MiG-21 Bison in 2022. The MiG-27 force will be out of service in 2020. The IAF will have only the Su-30, MiG-29, Jaguar and Mirage in its inventory unless the Rafale and Russian fifth-generation fighters are inducted.

In the present conditions, India will just manage to fight a single-front war. In case a two-front war is thrust on India, its armed forces will be put under great strain. Military modernisation has to be given priority in the coming years.

Vivek Kapur writing for the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in its Journal of Defence Studies has anlysed the challenges for the IAF in year 2032 when it would have entered its second century of existence. He has looked at contingencies of single front, 1.5 front and two front wars. He states that India should keep China in its cross-hairs and build up its inventory and this will automatically take care of Pakistan also. He estimates that to meet a two-front contingency would require the IAF to have 63 combat squadrons, backed up by adequate heavy-lift aircraft and force multipliers by way of AWACS and FRA. Requirements of helicopters including attack helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, armament, EW capabiliity and base infrastructure have been detailed in the article. While the requirements would appear to be very large, China’s rapid development of its PLAAF, both in terms of quality and quantity need to be kept in mind.

Conclusion

In conclusion it could be stated that at present, the Indian military, including the IAF, have vulnerabilities that would prove disastrous in the event of a two-front war. Till such time as we can bring about some balance as regards force levels and capabilities vis-à-vis China, diplomacy and economic engagement would be the best option.