What exactly is India’s overall nuclear deterrence capability in comparison to its ‘nuclear capable’ neighbours China and Pakistan?

Launched in the early 1980s, India’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) was an all-encompassing, ambitious project to indigenously develop missiles of different capabilities and for multifarious uses. In keeping with the threat perceptions on the proliferation of missiles in the region, the IGMDP was a well-thought out multi-pronged thrust for India to achieve a very high degree of self-reliance in the vital area of missile technology.

As for the Agni series of missile systems, how far has India succeeded in creating this very vital capability, especially in view of its ‘No First-Use’ policy for nuclear weapons? And, where does it stand in comparison with its immediate nuclear armed adversaries who, incidentally, do not follow a similar policy of ‘No First-Use’?

In the ballistic missile regime, India can at present boast of just the Prithvi and Agni-I Short Range Missiles (SRBM). Prithvi I and Prithvi II have been inducted into the Indian Army and the IAF, respectively, and are operational. Agni-I, the first of the Agni series ballistic missile with a 600 km to 800 km range, is also reportedly operational, deployed in a Missile Group in the Indian Army. But that is probably where the present capability ends, notwithstanding the periodic political rhetoric.

Of late, the security situation in India’s neighbourhood has worsened with security challenges from China, blatant Chinese nuclear and missiles proliferation to Pakistan and mutual proliferation between Pakistan and North Korea. The strategic redline was crossed in 1998 when Pakistan tested the North Korean-supplied ‘No-Dong’ (Ghauri-I) missile that could threaten the very heartland of India with Pakistani nuclear warheads. This was the ultimate international complicity, allowing nuclear proliferation by proxy into the hands of Pakistan. This and other international security issues forced India to go fully nuclear, resulting in the Pokhran-II nuclear test series and a resolve to its weaponisation by developing the Agni family of ballistic missiles.