China’s global ambitions in recent years meant higher defence allocations and a much bigger flip to air and sea power. “The air force is a strategic military service that has a vital position and plays a vital role in the overall situation of national security and military strategy,” said Xi Jinping, in April 2014. The growing Chinese indigenous aviation industry has been supporting much faster growth of PLA Air Force (PLAAF). Notwithstanding China’s main interest in the South and East China Seas, and the Western Pacific, they continue to work to contain India. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) has remained active since the Galwan skirmish of 2020. China is strengthening airfield infrastructure and supply lines across LAC.

MODERNISING PLAAF APPROACH

PLAAF is fast acquiring top-end systems and weapons of global class and reach. There is much greater emphasis on modern technologies, including stealth, hypersonic, Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyber, electronic warfare, and long range missiles. PLAAF also reoriented its flying training and tactics, and there is much higher emphasis on realistic exercises. The PLAAF has made major changes in its operational doctrine based on global reach requirements. Air defence of critical assets; long-range offensive precision strikes; integrated battlefield support missions; intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR); information operations; and strategic air-transport reach are on priority. Integration of air and space will support both offensive and defensive operations. PLAAF is preparing for hybrid network-centric war.

CHINA’S GROWING AIR POWER ASSETS

The PLAAF is the largest air force in the region and the third largest in the world, with nearly 1,700 combat aircraft of which, nearly 800 are 4th generation-plus. Nearly 150 fifthgeneration, J-20 stealth fighters, have been built. Second stealth aircraft, J-31 development is being hastened. They also have over 160 H-6 jet bomber variants. The extended-range H-6K variant can carry six air-launched Cruise missiles. The long-range stealth bomber H-20, to strike regional and global targets, will be ready by 2025. Over 50 Y-20 (60 tonne) heavy transport aircraft have been inducted. The Flight Refueller Aircraft (FRA) and AEW&C variants are ready. PLAAF has a variety of indigenous and Russian utility and attack helicopters. PLAAF also has a large number of indigenous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) of global standards. Many of these carry armaments (UCAV).

China is developing a large number of aerial precision munitions, which include the long range Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air-to-Air missiles (AAM) such as PL-12, PL-21, and the PL-15. China has significant inventory of land attack cruise missiles with a 1,500 km range. The PLAAF’s advanced long range SAM systems, include Russian S-300, and S-400, and domestically produced HQ-9.

China’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly enhancing its capabilities with top-end globalclass systems and technologies like stealth, hypersonic, AI, and long-range missiles

PLAAF will be coordinating with the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). China’s extensive constellation of surveillance satellites with short revisit cycles greatly support surveillance and targeting. PLAAF gives greater importance to information, electronic and cyber warfare. The PLAAF also coordinates closely with PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF). PLA Navy (PLAN) has two operational aircraft carriers and nearly 500 aircraft. Two more carriers are under construction and two further, larger ones, on drawings boards.

But PLAAF has its limitations. The still don’t have time-tested aero-engines of any genre. There AESA, Stealth, EW and avionics technologies are still far behind international class.

IAF CURRENT BROAD CAPABILITIES

IAF has around 31 fighter squadrons. The Rafale aircraft is clearly superior to the China’s J-10, J-11, and Su-27 fighter jets. Only the Su-35S and J-20 will perhaps compete with the IAF’s Sukhoi Su-30 MKI. Mirage 2000 and the MiG-29 have all been upgraded. IAF has a significant transport fleet with global reach and airlift capability. The helicopter fleet numbers are good, and more indigenous ALH variants are inducting. IAF is a little low in number of AEW&C and FRA aircraft for the continental sized country and the two front threat, and the need to cover the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

The air defence radar cover and the Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) make a good potent combination. Indigenous surface-to-air missile systems are inducting, and the five Russian S-400 systems are under delivery. To cover the large Chinese border, more systems are being inducted. With induction of the MICA, Meteor, Astra, SCALP, BrahMos and Hammer, among others, IAF has a significant aerial weapons inventory. The future is unmanned. Artificial Intelligence supported autonomous systems will fly independently or in conjunction with each other in a swarm or with manned aircraft as a team. IAF has Israeli Heron and Searcher UAVs and Harpy and Harop Loitering Munitions. The American Predator MQ-9 Reaper drones are expected soon. DRDO’s Tapas and Ghatak platforms are work in progress. Large number of smaller drones too are being inducted.

IAF’S STRATEGIC REACH

IAF has already been demonstrating combat reach from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca, and the island territories up to Mauritius in Indian Ocean, using long range aircraft supported by FRA and AWACS. More airfields are becoming operational in the southern peninsula, and in Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The transport fleet has demonstrated global reach and first responded capability during calamities and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) missions.

AIR POWER ACROSS HIMALAYAS

China has around 11 airfields facing India in Tibet and Xinjiang. They are mostly dual use airports. But infrastructure, including hardened aircraft shelters are being built. Most of these airfields are at high altitude of nearly 10,000 feet. But all types of aircraft including the Su-30s, J-10s, and J-20 have been operating detachments in the area. In Comparison, IAF has nearly 25 airfields facing China. Most Indian airfields are at below 2,000 feet altitude. IAF thus has advantage of load carriage and number of missions it can launch. India’s military assets and infrastructure build up and assets positioning towards China is happening. The ALG at Nyoma has become operational. Thoise hosts fighter aircraft now. IAF has upgraded its Advanced Landing Grounds (ALG) near China border. All IAF airfields are getting hardened aircraft and equipment shelters. IAF’s many operational aircraft including Rafale, Su-30 MKI, C-130, Chinook and Apache have all been positioned in the east in significant numbers. China is likely to initially use cruise missiles and glide bombs against IAF airfields. IAF has to have strong air defences to take on cruise missiles, and also modern runway repair facilities.

Demonstrating its combat reach from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca, IAF is positioned to dominate regions vital to India’s interests

India must work towards achieving local sectorial air superiority. It must be remembered that the effect of neutralising just two Chinese airfields in each sector would have much more severe implications for them than if the same was to happen for India. India should thus concentrate on neutralising PLAAF airfield using surface and airlaunched missiles, and build inventories accordingly.

Interdiction will pay high dividends in the mountains. Destroying a few bridges could throttle logistics chains and supplies. Creating weapon triggered landslides could block roads. Attacks against convoys on the very few roads would create bottle-necks. Air can provide both kinetic and non-kinetic options with pin-point accuracy. It will influence outcomes and actions of the surface forces. Both, the fighter aircraft and attack helicopters will be employed for this. UCAVs and drones would be used for interdiction, battlefield strikes and anti-tank and anti-personal operations. The transport and helicopters would also provide the airlift of troops and military hardware inter and intra sector. Inter-valley air transfers maybe required in changing battle situation. IAF has significant reach and capability on this count.

The radar cover has terrain related constraints in the mountains. However, there are also vantage points for their positioning. Yet, much greater dependence would have to be on AWACS. Numbers will have to go up. Satellites and UAVs would have to be used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). Drones will also be a great asset for surveillance.

Effects based, network centric operations would be employed. The side that better employs electronic warfare and cyber means and tools will have advantage. Securing own networks and denying the same to adversary will be important. Air and space platforms will greatly support cyber and electronic warfare operations much deeper into the enemy territory.

PLAAF-PAF COLLUSIVITY

Pakistan Air Force (PAF), though smaller in numbers, continues to modernise. With nearly 75 F-16s, 25 J-10C, 150 JF-17s, and operational exposure in exercises, they remain a significant force that cannot be ignored. PLAAFPAF have annual Shaheen series exercises. With 60 per cent of PAF being of Chinese origin, interoperability will support coordinated fighting against India.

REBUILDING IAF NUMBERS

The IAF will have to continue to transform from just being platform-based to being capability-based. IAF is likely to have around 37-38 fighter squadrons by 2030. The target is to get to 42 squadrons by 2038. The major additions would be the LCA variants, six of the new fighter, and four of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). These figures are achievable as long as timely decisions are taken, and there are no serious development delays in AMCA. Effectively IAF may have to stretch the Mirage and MiG-29 fleets. IAF must also target to have eight large and 10 smaller AWACS, at least 12 FRA aircraft by 2030. IAF requires additional unmanned platforms including the indigenously developed DRDO’s TAPAS BH-201 and “Ghatak”. The 10 deficient fighter squadrons and nearly 12 more to retire by 2038 will require significant funding. Capital budget would have to increase.

IAF’S DOCTRINE APPROACH

IAF’s Doctrine 2022 clearly reflects the change of IAF from just an Air Power to Aerospace Power. IAF is fast transforming from a continental air force to one with global reach. It now has trans-domain operations capability, and prides itself for its reach, flexibility and versatility, responsiveness, and offensive lethality. It works towards favourable asymmetry. All top end fighters refuel in the air. IAF repeatedly flies long 8-10 hour missions. It is in a position to dominate from Malacca Straight to Gulf of Aden. There is a need to strengthen the air infrastructure and assets at the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. IAF’s capability for Anti-Access and Area Denial (AA/AD) is increasing. IAF is totally networked and its automated Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) allows combat engagements control across the sub-continent. IAF is working closely with other services for joint operations. The joint doctrines are continuously being updated.

Transitioning from an air power to aerospace power, IAF’s Doctrine 2022 underscores its global reach and versatility

TRAINING AND EXERCISES

The IAF has continuously been reviewing basic and combat training. Large force engagements supported by UAVs, AEW&C, FRA and the huge ground radar network are being exercised continuously. IAF is also exercising regularly with major air forces of the world. The recent exercise ‘Pitch Black’ at Darwin in Australia had 17 air forces participating. IAF is working and exercising closely with the QUAD air forces in particular. They recently carried out an exercise with the Japanese Self Defence Air Force (JSDAF) in Japan. IAF will hold its largest ever multinational exercise ‘Tarang Shakti’ in 2024. IAF also has a structured annual plan of exercises with the other two services.

FLIGHT SAFETY

Notwithstanding some sceptics, the IAF has maintained an excellent aerospace safety record because of great innovative initiatives. Today there is automation in accident/incident reporting. Preventive maintenance, and better technical defect assessment have shown results. Operational safety environment has been enhanced through militarycivil cooperation. Bird strikes have greatly reduced because of mitigating measures. Air Safety training, awareness and responsiveness has been enhanced, and continued training on crew resource management has been increased. In last four years IAF has had just 12 accidents. There has been steady lowering of accident rate, which today stands at an all-time best of 0.12 per 10,000 hours of flying. This compares well with modern air forces of the world.

ATMANIRBHARTA THE ONLY WAY AHEAD

India is the fifth largest economy and the fourth most powerful military. For its global profile and stature, and defence requirements, India must have a vibrant defence industry. One of the biggest lessons of Ukraine conflict has been that global supply chains can be easily disrupted. In the recent past Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) in defence is being pushed at the highest level. Global defence manufacturers are coming to India in large numbers. Many Indian large business houses are now in defence manufacturing. DRDO has begun involving private partners and transferring technology. HAL has been outsourcing Su-30 MKI and LCA fuselage aero-structures manufacturing to private sector. A large MSME eco-system has got build. Some of the greatest advantage of Atmanirbharta actually accrues in aerial systems and platforms because of higher rate of obsolescence and much higher costs. The Drone Federation of India (DFI) has become very active and driving indigenisation. The IAF is closely interacting with industry and academia to promote indigenisation. They conducted the Mehar Baba competition for drones. Indigenisation has to be a whole of country approach. The steps taken by the government of expanding the positive indigenisation list and earmarking increased percentage of Defence Capital Budget for Made-in-India products would promote atmanirbharta.

WAY AHEAD IAF

While IAF has been modernising steadily, more needs to be done. IAF must get back to the authorised force levels of 42 squadrons. Some often suggest that since Rafale and Su-30 MKI can achieve much greater effects than the older MiG-21s, why IAF should continue to seek 42 squadrons. The argument is flawed. India’s adversaries are already having fifth generation fighters. They are not cutting down numbers. Type of aircraft and weapon platforms must be comparable to the adversary.

IAF also urgently needs additional AEW&C and FRA. IAF needs to invest more into UCAVs. IAF will need more air defence SAM systems and there is a need to accelerate inductions of larger numbers of indigenous air defence systems. The lessons from Ukraine conflict indicate the need for large weapon stocking and therefore there is need for continuous review. Kamikaze drones have turned game-changers and having large inventories of these has become important. SSMs and Cruise missiles are going to be important. India has a good missile program. The BrahMos, Akash, Helina, and Astra missiles are a success, and newer variants must be hastened.

India needs to invest more in gamechanger technologies. These include cyber and electronic warfare, stealth, artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, hypersonic, among others. Hypersonic flight and weapons will act as force multipliers against high-value targets. There is a lot of action in Directed Energy Weapons (DEW). Lasers that can burn incoming missile electronics or dazzle electro-optical sensors. For India to become significant, it must also master aircraft engine, and AESA radar technologies. Joint venture route is the best to imbibe high-end technologies. We need very long range weapons, including aerial missiles with around 400 kilometres ranges. Similarly, air-launched cruise missile with ranges of around 1,500 kilometres.

With trans-domain operations capability and a networked Integrated Air Command and Control System, IAF is poised for joint operations and collaborations with international partners

There is a backlog of modernisation. The fighter squadron numbers are at all-time low. This is the first concern that needs to be addressed. The approach to get back the numbers is well understood at all levels, but there is a need to hasten actions. The LCA variants development and manufacture has to be accelerated. Also, most feel that the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) may get into squadron service only after 2035. This would put us over 20 years behind the PLAAF. The whole of nation approach will be required for this project. India will have no choice but to buy the 114 fighters from abroad as a onetime measure. The Request for Proposal (RFP) must go out quickly. Without taking sides, if the Indian Navy were to choose Rafale-M, then it would perhaps make good sense for the IAF also to go for more Rafale and they be Made-in-India. Having already paid for India specific modifications, the increased numbers would make good economic-cum-combat sense.

While India takes indigenous route for FRA and AEW&C using the Ex-Air India airliners, the timelines are at least 6-8 years for modification and operationalisation. In the interim, options like lease of FRAs need to be explored with vigour.

The obsolescence sets in much faster for aerial systems. To stem the increasing gap with China, India perhaps needs to increase its defence allocations, from current 2.15 per cent of GDP to around 2.5 per cent. IAF is well trained and operationally well exposed, but once the numbers increase, IAF will be much better placed. There is thus a need to refocus the priorities on doctrines, force levels, modernisation and training. Time act is now!