While the UAV and UCAV are becoming more ubiquitous with advances in technology, it will be quite some time before these can replace a manned aircraft. However, it wouldn’t be long before the Moore’s law allows a micro chip to be embedded with artificial intelligence to allow more and more routine functions to be carried out remotely.

With the centenary of unmanned aviation less than six years away, the success rate of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operations in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region has bolstered the aviation industry to design more modern, multi-role UAVs and the unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs). This is evident from many newer designs and prototype platforms being developed, particularly in the Western countries and in China. It is heartening to note that the Indian UCAV design, code named Aura, is in the advanced stages of finalisation. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) aims to fly the prototype version by 2016-17. It has been over 20 years since the Indian armed forces inducted Israeli UAVs, namely the Searcher and the long endurance Heron. Over the years, the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) has been providing incremental upgrades, but the armed version of Heron has not yet been inducted in the inventory. The indigenous Rustom-2 HALE UAV being developed by DRDO is also expected to provide attack capability, but the operational version is expected only in 2015-16.

The ‘hunter killer’ UAVs like the US Predator and Reaper are proving to be a ‘game changer’ in the war against terrorism. It is reported that in 2010 alone almost 957 suspected militants were killed and another 383 injured by the US drone attacks, in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. However, the ongoing friction between the US and Pakistan continues to fester with Pakistan accusing USA of transgressing its national sovereignty. As recent as in the first week of July 2012, a triple US drone attack on a militant compound in Pakistan’s North-Western tribal area of Datta Khel village, near Miranshah, killed 15 insurgents. This village is considered to be a stronghold of Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a Taliban commander, who is accused by the US of infiltrating insurgents across the border, to fight the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) troops in Afghanistan. It was the first drone attack since Islamabad reached a deal with Washington to reopen land routes into Afghanistan, after the US Secretary of State expressed regret for the deaths of 24 Pakistani soldiers, who were mistakenly killed during a NATO air strike in November 2011. In the last couple of years, the industry is laying more stress on improving the accuracy of attacks so as to reduce collateral deaths.

This ongoing diplomatic tension with USA has prompted Pakistan to develop its own indigenous armed UAV, named Burraq, which is reportedly in the making for the last three years. As per recent reports, with help from Chinese aircraft industry and other unconfirmed sources such as Turkey, Burraq is expected to be deployed shortly. It is expected to be armed with UMTAS infrared-guided anti-tank, multi-role missile being developed by the Turkish firm Roketsan. It is also possible that Pakistan would acquire Chinese AR-1 laser guided attack missile for its use from the Burraq UAV. Pakistan already coproduces the Italian Selex Galileo Falco UAV, which can laserdesignate targets for other platforms, but cannot deliver missiles and munitions on its own.

The Chinese have gone well ahead with their armed version of UAV which was reportedly used for the first time in July 2009, in the Muslim dominated Uyghur region, to quell clashes against the Han Chinese settlers. The Chinese have operationally deployed armed UAV CH-3, which can carry two precisionguided air-to-surface weapons. China is also expected to shortly deploy the jet-propelled UCAV known as WJ-600. This UCAV being produced by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) is reportedly fitted with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and has a maximum range of 2,100 kilometres, while carrying payload of around 600 kg. The Chinese have also evaluated stealth technology from the US RQ-170 Sentinel UAV, which was captured by the Iranian troops in December 2011. The Chinese are developing a number of coastal UAV surveillance stations and a maritime version of WJ-600 is expected to be deployed in anti-shipping role. While the Chinese have developed their own rotary wing UAV V-750, Pakistan Navy is also reportedly acquiring rotor-craft drones from foreign sources.

The military role of UAV is growing at unprecedented rates. Rapid advances in micro and nano-technologies coupled with better robotics are being fitted on smaller airframes, which are resulting in large number of small unmanned aerial systems (SUAS) being deployed for battlefield support functions. The new generation UAVs not only perform intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions but their roles have been expanded to areas including strike missions, electronic warfare, suppression and/or destruction of enemy air defence (SEAD/DEAD), communications relay for various missions, including combat search and rescue (CSAR), etc.

A Federal Law, recently signed by the US President Barack Obama on February 14, 2012, compels the Federal Aviation Administration to allow drones to be used for various civil and commercial ventures such as mapping real estate, crop spraying, monitoring oil spills and tracking wildlife and even shooting Hollywood films. Local police and emergency services have also been empowered to use their own UAVs. While the drone manufacturers are rejoicing, the new law raises worries about intrusion of privacy and other issues like possible crowding, leading to mid-air collisions coupled with damage to property and lives on the ground. While the FAA is working on bringing in new air regulations for the US, the Indian Air Force along with other Services needs to start working with Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for similar regulations, which will address the issues of air space management and air defence, which will be required as the number of UAVs grow in India.

This brings us to the important aspect of cost of UAV operations vis-à-vis the manned combat aircraft or helicopters. The commercially available smaller UAVs cost just a few thousand dollars. Whereas the modern UCAVs could cost almost a million dollars depending upon the payload. For example, Zephyr unmanned aerial vehicle system is advertised on the Internet for $9,500 ( Rs. 5,22,500). It is a compact light weight UAV with a video range of 48 kms and is good enough for company level surveillance of Army or paramilitary troops. Similarly, a rotorcraft UAV known as the Aibot X6, costing around €35,000 ( Rs. 23.64 lakh) is capable of low flying, thereby avoiding weather. It has the capability of image processing for surveillance, investigation and inspection apart from many other commercial roles.