While Pakistan is in turmoil, what ought to be of greater concern for the nation is the approach of the Indian Government in handling the obdurate neighbour

The series of ceasefire violations in the recent past by Pakistani forces along the Line of Control (LoC) in the state of Jammu and Kashmir is being perceived by the Indian security establishment as attempts by Pakistan to infiltrate terrorists in large numbers to revive terrorism in the state. Militancy in the valley have been on the wane since 2008 with terrorism being progressively replaced by tourism, a development that would undoubtedly be of serious concern to the Pakistani military and political establishment. Although, there have been several violations across the LoC since November 28, 2003, the date on which the ceasefire came into effect, what has given this most recent episode an emotional twist and an unethical character is the fact that one of the two soldiers killed on the LoC in the Mendhar sector of the state by Pakistani soldiers, was also beheaded. However, even this is not an isolated case. It is understood that including the episode in question, four Indian soldiers has been beheaded in the last 13 years of conflict with Pakistan.

While skirmish and unprovoked firing along the LoC have been fairly routine, the continued hostility despite a Flag Meeting at Brigade level in the second week of January this year, could be related to the serious political turmoil and instability in Pakistan even as the nation is scheduled for national elections. One possibility is that the Pakistan Army, somewhat disenchanted by civilian rule, has devious plans to fuel instability within while creating a scenario of imminent war with India and in the ensuing uncertainty and chaos, take over power as an interim arrangement to begin with. The somewhat sudden emergence on the national political scene of Muhammad Tahirul-Qadri, a politico-religious entity in Pakistan who has generally maintained a low profile, confining himself to scholarly activities, is a new and unexpected development. In his public uttering, Qadri while heaping praise on the Pakistan Army and the judiciary accused the political establishment of rampant corruption that has left the majority in Pakistan in dire straits. In what is being regarded as an “Arab Spring in Pakistan”, Qadri called for a “million-men” march in Islamabad exhorting the people to dislodge the corrupt government currently in power. Qadri’s action is being seen by analysts as a part of the game plan by the Pakistan Army to serve its own ends. Qadri himself is being branded as an agent of the Pakistan Army.

Another development of significance is the order at this juncture by the Supreme Court of Pakistan for the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf in a case of corruption that has been under investigation for quite some time. Timing of the judgement by the Supreme Court does not appear to be a matter of coincidence but again a part of the insidious plan by General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan Army, who is due to retire after a tenure that has already been extended once. Cynics believe that the General is seeking re-employment and what could be more opportune and convenient than to exploit the chaotic situation to step into the shoes of his predecessor, General Pervez Musharraf! The judiciary is also seen as being hand in glove with the Army.