In the final analysis, the Indian government needs to carry out empirical studies to assess the likely requirements for the future in keeping with the rise in air power capabilities of China and Pakistan

Any appreciation of the direction to be taken to create future capabilities for the Indian Air Force (IAF) must rest on its role in the overall national defence, including likely capabilities of countries whose air power could impinge on Indian security, most importantly, China and Pakistan.

China’s military modernisation has been progressing purposefully for two decades now which is shifting the military balance in its favour. The access to Soviet/Russian military technology has provided a major leap into the future. The PLAAF (Chinese Air Force) would be expected to deploy upwards of 400 Sukhoi Su-27/Su-30 class of aircraft, over 700 newer versions of the MiG-21 (F-7) types besides the newer designs such as the FC-1 and J-10 which have been already under production and started entering operational service. This formidable combat power is supported by a plethora of force-multipliers like AWACS, aerial refuelling systems, and modern air defence systems, space-based command, control, and communications infrastructure, modernised ballistic and cruise missiles.

Pakistani Air Force (PAF) riding on the status of a frontline state has time and again been the recipient of high technology weapon systems such as the F-16 jet fighters from the US. During leaner times, it has been able to exploit its closeness to China to fill the deficiencies in its combat power. Today, it has already become a joint manufacturer of the JF-17 (Chinese FC-1) of which it has plans to build up to 250. In addition, it is also looking at acquiring up to two squadrons of the Chinese state-of-the-art J-10 jet fighters. Under the renewed military aid package from the US by jointly fighting the war against terror, the PAF is to receive improved version of F-16s which in the ultimate overall tally may reach a planned figure of 110 aircraft. In addition, the PAF is also in the hunt to acquire force-multipliers such as airborne early warning systems from Sweden (SAAB-2000 with Erieye) and China. At present, the PAF has around 530 jet fighters on its inventory with about 400 being operational at any given time in approximately 25 squadrons. In 2006, talking about the US imposed sanctions in the wake of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon tests and the resulting disparity between the IAF and the PAF, the then Chief of the Air Staff of the PAF, Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat, had said, We have to bridge this gap in the manner that we can deny the advantage that our neighbour has. Three years later, the gap has evidently been filled to a great extent.

Most defence analysts in India feel that the possibility of a full-fledged two-front war against it by China and Pakistan is remote. That may be so but what India is facing right now is a two-front aerospace power modernisation of unprecedented scale and technological dimensions. Secondly, as Air Commodore (Retd) Jasjit Singh, one of India’s leading defence strategists suggests, The strategic nexus between the two at the nuclear and conventional military levels has to be factored into our thinking. In the next five years, China would be well on its way to be operating a modern sophisticated air force with close to 1,500 state-of-the-art combat aircraft and all possible force-multipliers and combat support systems. It would also be well advanced to exploit space for military purposes.

It would be equally interesting to see which way Pakistan would be heading in the next five years. If all goes well, Pakistan would have received enough F-16s (most of them advanced versions) to raise the inventory of this high performance multirole combat aircraft to 110—a formidable force indeed. Another high-tech induction into the PAF is the jointly developed JF-17 (Joint Fighter-17) Thunder with China (known there as FC-1 or Fierce Dragon). Soon after the induction of the first two JF-17s, specially flown into Pakistan to participate in the Pakistan Day Joint Services Parade on March 23, 2007, the PAF chief, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed said, PAF would soon induct Fourth and Fifth Generation high-tech fleet of fighterbomber aircraft with the aim to modernize the country’s air force, which includes the induction of 10 to 12 squadrons of JF-17 Thunder aircraft. Remarkably, development of the JF-17 has been one of the fastest in the history of military aviation. Secondly, its production has already commenced at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra putting Pakistan in the category of only a small number of countries that can produce jet fighters. The production will soon be increased to 20 to 30 per annum giving PAF the capability of having a fleet of 100 to 150 aircraft in the next five years. Ultimately, the PAF may acquire 250 to 300 aircraft of this type to replace its older models such as the F-7 and Mirage III/V aircraft.