Boeing is upbeat about increased passenger movement, almost two-thirds of it accounted by low cost carriers, and has projected that India would need 1,150 aircraft valued at $130 billion, between now and 2029.

Making these projections, Boeing India, President, Dinesh Keskar said Boeing would be up there addressing the needs of the Indian market with its fleet of aircraft and promising to deliver Air India the much-delayed 787 Dreamliner between end of first quarter and beginning of second quarter of 2011. “We have given a firm schedule to Air India and we will stick by it.” As for delayed deliveries, Air India is entitled to compensation and that is getting sorted out, he said without divulging any details.

The factors driving the Indian aviation industry and Boeing’s projections stem from these - a GDP of 7 per cent; more disposable income; improved airport infrastructure; buoyant airlines, particularly low cost (Spice Jet and Jet Airways have declared profits in 2010 first quarter); reasonable fuel price (hovering around 70 dollars a barrel) and a liberalized regime.

The future belonged to point-to-point travel, indicating that the Boeing family of 737; 777 and later 787 aircraft would address this specific requirement of passengers. The passenger was clearly moving away from hub-to-hub to point-to-point, thanks to increased connectivity. The market demand for large carriers (with over 400 seats) and regional carriers would be “insignificant”. In 2000 - only Air India and British Airways operated to 3 destinations with 24 weekly frequencies and 412 average seats per flight and a decade later there are six airlines operating to eight destinations in India with 104 weekly frequencies and 297 average seats per flight. “The average number of seats is going down in an aircraft.”

Reflecting such phenomenal growth has been the Dubai-India route with Emirates leading the way. In 2000, Air India and Emirates had almost equal weekly capacity of seats and in 2010 of the weekly 80,000 seat availability, Emirates had surpassed with about 50,000 weekly seats, followed by Air India, Jet Airways and Kingfisher.

Dreamliner to burn less fuel

Comparing Airbus A-380 jumbo to Dreamliner, Keskar the latter would burn 16 per cent less fuel, thus affecting a saving of 2.7 million dollars per aircraft per year on Delhi-London route. Dreamliner which featured at the Farnborough air show in July 2010 had unprecedented market response - 863 orders from 56 customers, including Air India and Jet Airways, Keskar pointed out.

Keskar said air travel in India, tied closely to the country’s economic growth, will largely recover by 2011. “We went through the deepest recession in the history of aviation but now India’s recovery is one of the fastest. We believe there will be a record 50 million passengers this year if the trend continues.” In 2009, airlines in India carried a record 44 million passengers.

With regard to the freighter market in India, Keskar said “it is negligible as most of the air cargo movement is happening through the belly of the scheduled airlines.” The air cargo segment is growing and the increased airline capacities will “more than handle this growth”.

World perspective

Boeing studies have pointed out that airlines would need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion, up from 18,890 airplanes in 2009. The forecast 2009-2029 - world GDP to grow at 3.2 per cent; airplane fleet by 3.3 per cent; airline passengers by 4.2 per cent; cargo traffic (Revenue per tonne kilometer) 5.9 per cent.

The market for new airplanes would get more geographically balanced with Asia-Pacific accounting for 10,320; North America 7,200; Europe 7,190; Middle East 2,340; Latin America 2,180; C.I.S 960; and Africa 710. Air travel is to significantly increase in all of South Asia’s markets - within South Asia (9.3 per cent annual growth).

MRO status

Keskar announced that Boeing had appointed a Project Management Contractor for the MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) facility at Nagpur, in a tie-up with Air India, and the ground-breaking would happen by the end of the year. “The MRO should be up and running in two years addressing the needs of airline operators having 787; 737; and 777 aircraft.”

Annual traffic growth 2010-2029 (all in percentages)